据11月29日Arab News报道，鉴于全球需求的不确定性，以及全球新冠肺炎病例激增的情况，欧佩克+石油生产国的能源部长们正在考虑将历史性的原油减产规模再延长一段时间。
在欧佩克+于本周召开的一次至关重要的全体会议之前，由沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯这两大产油国领导的23个欧佩克+成员国的决策者们一直在进行磋商，以决定是否从下个月起将额外200万桶/天的石油投放到全球市场。
贸易专家表示，鉴于全球经济前景的长期的不确定性，可能会进一步延长目前的减产水平(每天约770万桶)。
全球原油交易商维多的亚洲业务主管迈克?穆勒(Mike Muller)在咨询机构Gulf Intelligence组织的一个论坛上表示:“市场普遍认为，欧佩克+将推迟全面增产协议，当前最主要的问题是推迟的时间是3个月还是6个月，尚不能确定。”
沙特能源部长、欧佩克部长级委员会主席阿卜杜勒 萨勒曼王子表示，鉴于经济不确定性和石油需求增长疲软，他愿意考虑对目前的供应计划时间表进行“微调”。
最近原油价格的强劲上涨使市场预期变得复杂起来。全球基准布伦特原油价格上周连续第三周上涨，报每桶48.27美元。
油价上涨将意味着全球市场需求增加，因此欧佩克就没有那么多理由放弃恢复供应的时间。去年4月，欧佩克在危机最严重时商定了当前恢复供应的时间表，当时油价一度跌至负值。
此外，一些欧佩克+产油国热衷于提高出口水平，因为他们的经济受到出行限制措施的影响。
尼日利亚认为，欧佩克+减产计划应考虑到各成员国的经济状况。不过，沙特阿拉伯反对这一观点，称这将为其他国家所谓的“特殊情况”开辟道路，有损欧佩克+的团结和信誉。
决定延长减产期限的关键因素是沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的关系。自去年春天的动荡以来，这两个国家一直在采取行动。
在欧佩克+石油部长会议召开前，根据莫斯科的报告，俄罗斯倾向于将目前的减产措施延长3个月。
王佳晶 摘译自 Arab News
原文如下：
OPEC+ energy ministers ponder delay to extra oil supply ahead of key meeting
Energy ministers from the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers are considering whether or not to extend historic cuts to crude output for a further period, in view of global uncertainties about demand, as COVID-19 cases surge worldwide.
Policymakers from the 23 OPEC+ grouping - led by the two biggest producers Saudi Arabia and Russia - have been consulting ahead of a crucial full meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries this week to decide whether to put an extra two million barrels of oil per day back Trading experts said that a further extension of the current level of cuts - around 7.7m barrels per day - was likely in view of continuing uncertainty about the global economic outlook.
Mike Muller, head of Asian business for global crude trader Vitol, told a forum organized by the consultancy Gulf Intelligence: “The market consensus is that they will hold off Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman, the energy minister of Saudi Arabia and chairman of the OPEC+ ministerial committee, has indicated his willingness to consider “tweaks” to the current schedule in view of economic uncertainties and fragile oil demand growth.
The OPEC+ policymakers’ calculations have been complicated by the recent strong rise in the price of crude. Brent, the global benchmark, enjoyed its third consecutive week of rising prices last week, standing at $48.27 per barrel.
Rising oil prices would suggest greater demand in the global market, and therefore less reason for OPEC+ to abandon the timetable for resumption of supply it agreed last April at the height of the crisis that saw some prices fall into negative territory.
On the other hand, some OPEC+ countries are keen to increase export levels as their economies suffer from the effect of pandemic lockdowns.
Nigeria has argued that the OPEC+ rules should take into account the economic situation in individual member countries, a view to which Saudi Arabia is believed to be opposed because it would open the way for other countries to claim “exceptional circumstances”, undermining OPEC+ unity and credibility.
The crucial factor in deciding the extension and its duration is the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia, who have acted in tandem since the volatility of last spring.
Russia’s preference is to extend the current cuts for three months, according to reports from Moscow ahead of the OPEC+ ministers’ meeting.