据今日油价12月1日报道，尽管最近几周新冠肺炎病例激增，但由于石油库存自夏季达到峰值水平以来一直在稳步下降，美国的原油需求在未来几个月内可能会增加。美国汽油和柴油的总库存仍有高于5年平均水平的趋势，但自6月至7月以来，供过于求的情况已大幅减少。当时由于第一波新冠肺炎疫情实行了封锁措施，石油库存迅速增加。
美国炼油商已经设法减少了柴油库存过剩的情况。三个月前，柴油库存严重拖累了市场。自4月份以来，炼油商一直在最大限度地提高汽油等轻质馏分油的产量，而降低了柴油等中间馏分油的产量，同时抑制了原油的整体加工速度。
路透社市场分析师John Kemp在最近的一篇专栏文章中写道，未来几个月炼油商可能不得不增加原油投入，生产比过去几个月更多的中间馏分油，以防止柴油库存减少过多。
过去两个月，石油市场和分析师关注的焦点一直是主要经济体新冠肺炎疫情的重新爆发以及美国每日感染人数的创纪录上。美国炼油厂加工的原油量减少,并优先生产汽油，柴油和航空燃料的需求一直疲软。其结果是，美国商业馏分油的过剩库存被大幅削减，不过当时的库存仍高于最近五年的平均水平。
根据EIA截至6月26日当周的每周石油情况报告显示，6月底，馏分油库存较5年同期平均水平高出约28%。汽油产量每周都在上升，而馏分油的产量却在下降。
截至11月底，馏分油产量与6月份大致相同，但馏分油库存已连续数周出现下降。截至11月20日的一周内，美国馏分油库存减少140万桶。EIA数据显示，当前库存水平已经较五年平均水平低了约8%，而6月最后一周较五年平均水平高了28%。
截至10月2日当周，EIA的每周报告显示，仅两个月前，全美馏分油库存较五年平均水准高出约23%。馏分油库存从10月初的1.718亿桶降至11月20日当周的1.426亿桶。
尽管馏分油库存仍高于过去5年的季节性平均水平，但从初夏开始减少大量供应的趋势已经很明显。美国馏分油库存过剩的减少，给石油市场带来了希望，即炼油商可能会在明年初开始增加柴油的加工量。
另一份看涨报告显示，截至11月20日当周，俄克拉荷马州库欣的原油库存下降，此前库欣库存在一周内增加至6160万桶，引发市场担忧情绪。截至11月20日的一周，库欣的商业原油库存降至5990万桶。
ING策略师沃伦·帕特森（Warren Patterson）和姚文宇（Wenyu Yao）上周在评论最新的EIA报告时表示：“库欣原油库存本周减少172万桶，考虑到上个月WTI原油也在收紧，我们很可能将继续看到库欣库存的减少。”
美国原油和燃料库存仍高于五年平均水平。不过，如果馏分油库存持续稳步下降，未来几个月，炼油商可能会提高原油加工速度，从而提振石油市场。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
U.S. Oil Demand Set To Soar In The Coming Months
Despite the surge in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, crude oil demand in the United States could be U.S. refiners have managed to reduce the glut in diesel stocks, which weighed heavily Now refiners may have to boost crude oil inputs over the coming months and produce more middle distillates than they did over the past months, to prevent diesel inventories from drawing down too much, Reuters market analyst John Kemp writes in a recent column.
While the oil market and analysts were focused in the past two months As a result, the glut of distillate fuels in the U.S. commercial inventories has been slashed considerably, although stocks are still above the latest five-year average for this time of the year.
For example, five months ago, at the end of June, distillate fuel inventories were about 28 percent above the five-year average for that time of year, according to the weekly petroleum status report of the EIA for the week to June 26. Production of gasoline was rising week over week while production of distillate fuels was dropping.
By the end of November, distillate fuel production was roughly the same as in June, but inventories of distillates were already recording draws for weeks in a row. U.S. distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels in the week to November 20. They were already reduced to around 8 percent above the five-year average for this time of year, compared to 28 percent above the five-year average for the last week of June, EIA data shows.
Just two months ago, distillate fuel inventories across the United States were around 23 percent above the five-year average for the time of year, EIA’s weekly report for the week to October 2 showed. Distillate fuel stocks dropped from 171.8 million barrels in early October to 142.6 million barrels for the week to November 20.
Although distillate fuel inventories are still above seasonal averages of the past five years, the trend in downsizing the huge glut from early summer has been clear.
The reduction in oversupply in U.S. distillate fuel inventories gives the oil market hopes that refiners could begin to boost crude processing for diesel early next year.
On another bullish note, crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell in the week to November 20, after an uncomfortable for the market increase to 61.6 million barrels in the week to November 13.
In the week to November 20, commercial crude stocks at the Cushing hub dropped to below 60 million barrels—at 59.9 million barrels.
“Cushing crude oil inventories fell by 1.72MMbbls over the week, and given that we have also seen the WTI timespreads tighten over the last month, it’s likely that we continue to see a drawdown of Cushing inventories moving ahead,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said last week, commenting U.S. inventories of crude oil and fuels are still above the five-year average trends. Yet, if the steady decline in distillate inventories continues, refiners could give the oil market a boost by increasing crude oil processing rates in the coming months.