据路透社12月3日报道，欧佩克+消息人士透露，欧佩克产油国和俄罗斯在2021年的石油供应政策上有望达成妥协，要知道，在本周稍早的谈判中，产油国们未能就如何应对第二波新冠肺炎疫情下疲弱的石油需求做出一致决定。
市场普遍预期，欧佩克、俄罗斯及其盟友将把目前每日770万桶的减产计划延续至少3月，这相当于全球石油供应量的8%。但在新冠肺炎疫苗迅速获得批准在乐观信号推动油价在11月底反弹之后，一些产油国开始质疑是否有必要像沙特阿拉伯所主张的那样，对石油供应进行如此严格的控制。
欧佩克+消息人士表示，俄罗斯、伊拉克、尼日利亚和阿拉伯联合酋长国都在一定程度上表达了在2021年向市场供应更多石油的意向。
一名欧佩克产油国代表表示:“事情正走向相互妥协中。”咨询公司Energy Aspects写道:“据我们了解，欧佩克+成员国之间的讨论已经取得了初步进展，部长们正慢慢接近达成妥协，应该会打破僵局。”
消息人士表示，目前的选择包括将现有减产规模继续延期，以及从1月、2月、3月开始逐月减少50-100万桶/天的减产量。
两名消息人士表示，更可取的方案是将上述选择进行综合，最初是将现有的减产计划延期，并在未来几个月开始逐步增产。
欧佩克+必须在推高油价以支撑其预算，但又不能推高到与美国页岩油价格相当的程度，因此需要在此区间寻求微妙的平衡。美国页岩油价格将攀升至每桶50美元以上，现在的价格约为每桶48美元。俄罗斯的财政状况还能承受比利雅得更低的油价，这增加了欧佩克+所面临的挑战。
摩根大通(JP Morgan)估计，油价下跌造成在损失将超过增产带来的收益，欧佩克+若增产200万桶/天，2021年的收入将损失超过550亿美元。
王佳晶 摘译自 路透社
原文如下：
OPEC+ working OPEC and Russia have moved closer to a compromise over oil supply policy for 2021 after talks earlier this week failed to yield a decision The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, had been widely expected to extend existing oil cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or 8 percent of global supplies, until at least March.
But after hopes for a speedy approval of anti-virus vaccines spurred an oil price rally at the end of November, several producers started questioning the need to keep such a tight rein OPEC+ sources have said Russia, Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates have all to a certain extent expressed interest in supplying the market with more oil in 2021.
“Things are heading towards a compromise,” Energy Aspects, a consultancy, wrote: “We understand that there has been tentative progress in discussions between OPEC+ members today and that ministers are inching closer to a compromise that should break the impasse.”
Sources have said options now range from a rollover of existing policies to easing cuts each month by between 0.5 million to 1.0 million bpd starting from January, February or March.
Two sources told Reuters the preferred option was a combination of those proposals, initially rolling over existing cuts with a gradual output increase starting in later months.
OPEC+ has to strike a delicate balance between pushing up oil prices enough to help their budgets but not by so much that rival U.S. output surges. U.S. shale production tends to climb above $50 a barrel. Prices are now around $48.
Adding to the challenge within OPEC+, Moscow’s finances can tolerate lower oil prices than Riyadh’s.
JP Morgan estimated that additional production of 2 million bpd would cost OPEC+ $55 billion in lost revenues in 2021, as the price drop would outweigh the benefit for higher output.
