据12月5日Arab News报道，由13个欧佩克成员国和以俄罗斯为首的10个产油国组成的欧佩克+组织宣布，他们已就未来几个月调整石油生产水平的问题进行了讨论，并达成了妥协。
沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯支持将目前每日770万桶的减产期延长至2021年年初的几个月。据报道，其他几个国家反对延长减产期限，并希望按照4月份达成的协议，将减产幅度降至每天580万桶。最后，23个国家同意在1月份逐步减少50万桶/天的减产，然后按月确定未来的减产规模。前几个月生产过剩的国家被要求在3月底之前进行补偿性减产，这相当于将减产延长了3个月。
据报道，讨论过程很是紧张，欧佩克+部长级会议不得不从周二推迟到周四。就在11月初，一项将目前的减产规模延长几个月的协议看上去还很是可行。随后，新冠肺炎疫苗获批的信号出现，股市上涨，油价上涨持续了四周，这让欧佩克+内部就减产延期的计划产生分歧。
阿联酋对遵守配额或对超出配额的国家进行“补偿”的有效性提出了质疑，一些国家没有完成减产配额且未进行补偿性削减。伊拉克和尼日利亚认为，采取“一刀切”的削减方式是不公平的。
需求低迷和价格暴跌的可能性存在时，欧佩克+产油国们很容易团结起来。但当苏伊士以东地区的需求状况改善，且疫苗可能很快开始为苏伊士以西地区提供喘息之机时，欧佩克+内部就容易出现分歧。值得注意的是，欧佩克+所做的决定需要得到成员国一致的通过，这使问题进一步复杂化。
值得一提的是，疫苗仍是未来之事，而苏伊士以西地区的出行限制和封锁困境是当下存在之事，因为新冠肺炎疫情继续在影响这里的需求。总的来说，2021年1月份增加50万桶/天的产量可能不如将770万桶/天的减产规模再延长几个月那样理想。不过，这对市场的作用要比1月份按原计划再增加190万桶/天的计划要好得多。
每月调整以适应实时的市场发展是很有意义的。在周四的声明中，沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王子强调，对市场做出即时反应很重要，因此，考虑到新冠肺炎疫情传播的不确定性，每月进行市场评估是唯一的出路。
石油市场对这一消息表示欢迎，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格上涨1.75%，布伦特原油(Brent)价格上涨1.9%。
欧佩克+成员国不得不做出妥协，现实情况是，它们也确实做出了妥协。要知道，如果无法达成协议导致油价崩盘，所有人都将遭受损失，而考虑到苏伊士(Suez)以西地区的短期需求前景以及某欧佩克成员国石油产量的增加，油价暴跌是有可能发生的。
会议前的审议以及经过艰苦努力达成的妥协透露出三个信息。首先，阿联酋变得更加自信。过去几年，ADNOC积极地增加产能，希望利用这些产能表达自己的意愿。其次，伊拉克和尼日利亚等一些规模较小但仍相当可观的产油国对“一刀切”的减产方式表示不满，认为应更多考虑各国国情。第三，沙特和俄罗斯步调一致，这点很重要。因为今年3月的价格战引发全球石油市场动荡，让人警醒。
自今年4月以来，沙特一直严格遵守其减产配额，甚至在必要时进一步削减产量。今年，欧佩克+成员国的整体减产遵守率达到95%以上。
虽然欧佩克+达成一致，但未来几个月能源市场仍将充满危机，因为市场情绪波动，一方面是对疫苗在不久的将来发挥作用的乐观预期，另一方面是对当前需求遭受破坏的担忧。预计市场将出现波动，这更多是由基本面因素造成的，而不是欧佩克+下一步行动的不确定性造成的。欧佩克+表示将密切关注市场形势并作出应对。
王佳晶 摘译自 Arab News
原文如下：
The OPEC+ oil-production agreement – all’s well that ends well
The members of OPEC+, an alliance of the 13 OPEC countries and 10 cohorts led by Russia, Saudi Arabia and Russia are said to have favored extending the current reduction of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) into the first few months of 2021. Several other countries reportedly opposed an extension and wanted to reduce the cuts to 5.8 million bpd, as agreed in April.
In the end, the 23 countries agreed to taper the cuts by 500,000 bpd in January and then decide the future trajectory The discussions were reportedly tense and the OPEC+ ministerial meeting had to be delayed from Tuesday until Thursday to line up all the “ducks in a row.”
As recently as the beginning of November, an agreement to extend the current level of production cuts for a few months had looked more feasible. Then came the hope for early approvals of coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines, rising stock markets and an oil price rally that lasted for four weeks, which did little to help cohesion among the group.
The UAE reportedly questioned the validity of adhering to quotas or compensating for overstepping them while some countries overproduced and failed to compensate. Iraq and Nigeria are said to feel that a “one size fits all” approach to cuts is unfair, given their internal problems.
Achieving cohesion among such a disparate group is easier when the sword of Damocles — in the form of floundering demand and the potential for prices to fall off a cliff — is hanging over its members. It is harder when the demand picture looks really good east of Suez, and vaccines might soon start to provide respite west of Suez. The fact that decisions in the alliance need to be unanimous further complicates matters.
The problem, however, is that vaccines are still a thing of the future while restrictions and lockdowns west of Suez are a thing of the present, as the virus continues to rip through countries influencing demand here and now. In the final analysis, adding 500,000 bpd in January might not be as ideal a decision as extending the full 7.7 million bpd of cuts for several months — however, it does more for markets than would have been the case if an additional 1.9 million bpd had hit the markets in January as previously planned.
The monthly reviews make sense in terms of adjusting to market developments in real time. During the announcement The oil markets liked the announcement, with WTI rising by 1.75 percent in the aftermath and Brent by 1.9 percent.
The members of OPEC+ had to compromise and they did: everybody would have suffered if an inability to reach an agreement had led to a price collapse — which was a possibility, given the short-term demand outlook west of Suez and the additional barrels produced by a member of OPEC.
The deliberations leading up to the meeting, as well as the hard-fought compromise, have taught us three things. Firstly, the UAE is becoming more assertive. ADNOC has aggressively added capacity over the past few years, of which it would like to avail itself. (This is reminiscent of the situation a few years ago when Rosneft chief Igor Sechin put pressure Secondly, several smaller, yet still substantial, producers, such as Iraq and Nigeria, resent the “one size fits all” approach to production cuts and feel their internal circumstances should be afforded more consideration.
Thirdly, Saudi Arabia and Russia are marching in lockstep, which is important. Everyone remembers what happened when they failed to agree in March and embarked Since April, Saudi Arabia has meticulously adhered to its quota — and even made additional cuts above and beyond this when required. Russia has at times exceeded its quota. Prince Abdul Aziz had a point, however, when he stressed that despite some overproduction by some countries, overall compliance by members of the alliance has been high, above 95 percent throughout.
Saudi Arabia has meticulously adhered to its quota — and even made additional cuts above and beyond this when required.
In the end, the organization reached a compromise and this is important because it was a unanimous decision. It is also important that Prince Abdul Aziz and Alexander Novak, now Russia’s deputy prime minister and formerly the country’s energy minister, remain co-chairs of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, because this will ensure its efficacy.
The next few months will not be easy, as market sentiment swings between hopes for the effect of vaccines in the near future and concerns about demand destruction in the present as the virus continues to cause havoc, particularly west of Suez.
Expect volatility, which will be the result of fundamentals much more than any monthly uncertainty over the next steps of OPEC+. The organization will be monitoring the market closely.