据油气技术12月5日消息称，雷斯塔能源的一项分析显示，由于石油需求峰值将提前到来，并低于此前预期的水平，将导致勘探开发投资的减少，在未来8年里，油田服务(OFS)市场预计将累计损失3400亿美元的采购价值。
COVID-19大流行的影响和上个月能源转型的加速，促使雷斯塔能源修正其对石油需求峰值的预测。雷斯塔能源目前预计，产量将在2028年达到1.02亿桶/天，比此前预期的1.06亿桶/天提前两年。
OFS的采购预计将从2019年的6250亿美元降至今年的4730亿美元，并在2021年持平，然后开始缓慢复苏。根据雷斯塔能源最新的石油需求峰值预测，雷斯塔能源现在发现，按名义价格计算，OFS的购买价格要到2024年以后才能恢复到大流行前的水平，到2025年达到6420亿美元。按实际价值计算，排除物价上涨的影响，预计本十年的年度采购不会回到大流行前的水平。
3400亿美元的购买价值损失分摊到未来8年，并作为当前和先前石油需求峰值预期之间的累计差额计算，相当于下降6%。
曹海斌 摘译自 油气技术
原文如下：
Rystad Energy: oilfield service purchases set to lose US$340 billion until 2028
The oilfield service (OFS) market is projected to lose a cumulative US$340 billion in purchases value over the next eight years, a Rystad Energy analysis shows, as peak oil demand will arrive earlier and at a lower level than previously thought, leading to reduced E&P investments.
The COVID-19 pandemic’s effect and the accelerating energy transition last month impelled Rystad Energy to revise its peak oil demand forecast. Rystad now sees it coming in 2028, two years earlier than previously expected, at 102 million bpd, down from earlier projections of 106 million bpd.
OFS purchases are expected to drop to US$473 billion this year from US$625 billion in 2019 and remain flat in 2021 before starting a slow recovery. based The US$340 billion of lost purchases value is spread across the coming eight years and is calculated as the cumulative difference between the current and the previous outlook for peak oil demand, which corresponds to a 6% drop.
