据今日油价12月16日报道，上周，油价终于达到了50美元/桶，这是今年6月预测的水平。过去一周，尽管美国原油库存大幅增加，但看涨情绪主导了石油市场。随着疫苗接种行动在全球范围内展开，交易商预计明年需求将回升。然而，最近的交通数据显示，亚洲的道路交通仍比危机前的水平低5%，欧洲为20%，美国为40%。最近美国原油库存的增长显然是由于进口增加和出口减少导致的。EIA的数据显示，美国的需求正在放缓，不仅是因为出行的减少，也因为冬季的到来。美国炼油厂目前的日产量比一年前低216万桶。
欧佩克+本周将召开会议，评估11月的生产合规数据，鉴于布伦特原油目前在高于每桶50美元的水平上交易，该组织有很好的理由实施一些举措来庆祝新年。尽管欧佩克+将在2021年1月份增加50万桶/天的产量，但现在就断定欧佩克+将在2月份再增加50万桶/天的产量还为时过早。过去几周市场出现了看涨情绪，但石油市场仍不稳定，不确定性仍在继续。预计，如果油价继续保持在这一水平，欧佩克+将继续执行其预先设定的计划。
目前油价面临的最大风险是需求放缓和供应增加的同时出现，尽管疫苗已开始接种，但西欧新一轮的封锁措施令市场担忧，对复苏表示乐观可能为时过早。
欧佩克+需要在2021年保持警惕，因为全球新冠肺炎病例继续上升，美国每天因新冠肺炎死亡的人数超过3000人。与此同时，疫苗方面的积极消息继续支撑市场，抵消了对美国原油库存过度增长和中东热点国家产量飙升的担忧。
此外还有欧佩克+成员国之间的配额遵守问题，尽管与前几年相比，2020年的合规管理有所改善，但仍存在风险。目前，生产过剩的成员国必须在2021年第1季度末之前对其生产过剩的供应进行补偿。然而，欧佩克+成员国之间的经济形势不同，这意味着某些国家无法以当前油价分配的配额满足其预算要求，这可能会导致2021年的不合规问题，尽管分配的配额有所提高。
总而言之，市场的乐观前景还不能完全肯定，油价进一步上涨的可能有限，因为面对2021年需求的复苏，更多的非欧佩克成员国希望恢复产量。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Will Oil Continue To Rally In 2021?
Oil prices have finally hit $50 last week, a projection that we made back in June this year. Bullish sentiment prevailed in the oil markets over the past week despite a significant increase in US crude oil inventories. Traders are expecting demand to pick up next year as vaccination campaigns are rolled out worldwide. Yet recent traffic data shows that road traffic is still below pre-crisis levels by 5% in Asia, 20% in Europe, and 40% in the US. The recent growth in US crude inventories is clearly due to an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. The EIA figures continue to show that demand is slowing in the United States, not OPEC+ is set to meet this week to review November production compliance data, and with Brent currently trading above $50, the group has a good reason to celebrate the new year. While OPEC+ is set to add 500,000 bpd of production in January, it is still too early to conclude that OPEC+ will add an additional 500,000 bpd in February. Oil markets remain volatile and uncertainty continues despite the bullish sentiment seen over the past few weeks. Yet we expect the group to go ahead with its pre-set plans if prices continue to trade at this level.
The largest risk for prices currently is slowing demand and a simultaneous increase in supplies, despite vaccination campaigns. A new bout of lockdown measures in Western Europe has markets worried that optimism about the recovery could have been premature.
OPEC+ needs to stay vigilant in 2021 as COVID-19 cases continue to rise around the globe, with US COVID-19 deaths exceeding the level of 3,000 a day. Meanwhile, positive news Another issue is the compliance among the OPEC+ group members, which despite being better managed in 2020 compared to previous years, remains a risk. Currently, over-producing members have until the end of Q-1 2021 to compensate for their over-production. Yet, economic situations among the OPEC+ members remain different, meaning that certain countries cannot meet their budget requirements with the allocated quota at current oil prices. This may lead to the issue of non-compliance in 2021 despite a higher allocated quota.
We think that the market's optimism has not reached its full potential yet. Further upside for prices, could however, be limited as more non-OPEC members are looking to bring back production in the face of recovering demand in 2021.