据今日油价12月16日报道，原油价格升至早春以来的最高水平，美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）批准辉瑞生物科技公司(Pfizer-BioNTech)新冠肺炎疫苗上市，并表示，全国数百个疫苗接种点将提供疫苗。从过去的几周来看，交易员们重新燃起了购买石油和燃料期货的热情，现在正在为市场调整做准备。路透社的John Kemp在其每周专栏中称，对冲基金交易员放缓了原油和衍生品合约的购买，并指出这是交易员们连续第五周大举买入。
然而，即使在美国开始接种疫苗，这种需求也很难维持，主要有两个原因:一是接种疫苗需要的时间；二是石油的基本面情况。
辉瑞在美国上市的疫苗获得监管部门批准，是石油市场朝着看涨方向迈出的重要一步，但这只是众多举措中的第一步。在有效性和物流方面仍然存在挑战。美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)报道称，虽然第一批医务人员已经接种了疫苗，但大多数美国人需要数月时间才能完成疫苗的接种。
今年年初，美国购买了1亿剂辉瑞疫苗，这意味着将有5000万人接种，因为疫苗需要打两剂。辉瑞制药公司表示，在2021年年中之前无法供应额外的数量。简而言之，要想一切恢复正常还需要一段时间。
欧洲在疫苗接种方面也存在不确定性，各国政府对强制接种新冠肺炎疫苗持谨慎态度，不过，公众对疫苗越来越不信任，这可能会影响通过接种实现群体免疫的努力。
此外，石油的供需问题也可能会阻碍最近这轮油价的上涨。欧佩克正准备从明年1月开始将日产量增加50万桶。美国已经在增加产量。
与此同时，欧佩克下调了今年的石油需求预期。预计，自今年初以来，原油日需求量将下降970万桶，平均为8999万桶/天。2021年的需求预期也被下调，欧佩克目前预计，2021年的平均石油需求为9589万桶/天，这较2020年的情况相比有很大改善，但仍比之前的预测低41万桶/天。
与此同时，亚洲从疫情中复苏无疑对油价有利，欧洲渐渐解除第二轮封锁也是有力因素。据彭博社最近报道，随着印度、中国和日本的汽油需求出现反弹，燃油库存一直在稳步消耗。对许多分析师来说，需求反弹只是时间问题。2021年尽管面临挑战，但扔给价格带来上行支持。
能源方面专家表示：“石油是所有通货膨胀资产中最便宜的，随着疫苗的推出，我们预计投资者将开始重返石油行业，油价将继续坚挺。”还有专家表示：“过去几周，价格上涨势头明显放缓，尽管可能需要一些新的或出乎意料的牛市消息,才能把市场推向新的高点。我们也注意到，市场似乎已经获得了对悲观的头条新闻的免疫力。”
换言之，笼罩在石油上空的“乌云”开始消散，虽然可能需要一段时间才能完全消失，但需求正在好转，这也是目前唯一最重要的因素。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Is It Time For A Correction In Oil Markets?
Crude oil prices rose to the highest since early spring after the FDA yesterday gave the green light to the Pfizer-BionTech Covid-19 vaccine, with government officials saying several hundred vaccination sites across the country would be supplied with vaccines by tomorrow. But traders—who have been buying oil and fuels futures with renewed eagerness over the past few weeks—are now preparing for a market correction. Traders from hedge funds slowed down their purchases of crude oil and derivatives contracts, Reuters’ John Kemp said in his weekly column, noting that this is the fifth week in a row when traders have been buying with a voracious appetite.
This appetite will be difficult to sustain, though, even after vaccinations start in the United States, for two main reasons: how long it will take to vaccinate the population and oil’s fundamentals.
The regulatory approval of the Pfizer-BionTech vaccine for the United States was a major step in a bullish direction for oil, but it was the first of many. Challenges remain concerning both availability and logistics. CNN reported yesterday that while the first medical workers were vaccinated The federal government bought 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine earlier this year, which means 50 million people will be vaccinated since it’s a two-dose vaccine. Pfizer has now said it would be unable to supply additional quantities until the middle of next year.
In short, it will be a while before things begin to return to normal.
Europe is also in an uncertain position with vaccinations. Governments are wary of making the Covid-19 vaccination obligatory, but there is growing public mistrust in the Covid-19 vaccines that may compromise efforts to achieve herd immunity through inoculation.
Then there is the question of oil supply and demand that could take the wheels off this latest price rally. OPEC is preparing to start pumping half a million barrels daily more from January. The U.S. is already pumping more.
At the same time, OPEC yesterday lowered its oil demand forecast for this year. The cartel now expects demand to have fallen by 9.7 million bpd since the start of the year, averaging 89.99 million bpd. The demand projection for 2021 was also revised down. OPEC now expects 2021 oil demand to average 95.89 million bpd, which would be a solid improvement Then there’s Iran, which last week said it expected to be exporting 2.3 million bpd of oil next year, confident it could reach a deal with the Biden administration regarding sanctions that are currently stifling its oil exports. A deal is not exactly certain: while Biden has signaled he is ready to negotiate, Iran has in its turn signaled it would not be the first At the same time, the Asian recovery from the pandemic is certainly bullish for oil, as is Europe’s exit from the second round of lockdowns. According to a recent Bloomberg report, fuel inventories have been draining steadily, with India, China, and Japan reporting a rebound in gasoline demand. For many analysts, the rebound is “Oil is the cheapest of all reflation assets,” according to Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen, who spoke to Bloomberg. “With vaccines slowly rolling out, we expect investors to start returning to the oil sector and for prices to continue firming.”
“Price momentum has slowed appreciably during the past couple of weeks and while some fresh or unexpected bullish headlines may be required to advance the complex into new high territory, we will also note a market that appears to have developed immunity to bearish headlines that would normally be slapping the complex down,” another analyst, Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch Associates, told Reuters.
The clouds over oil, in other words, are beginning to clear. It might take a while for them to clear completely, but demand is on the mend, and ultimately, this is the single most important factor right now.