据化工网12月16日消息：国际能源信息署(IEA)在其月度报告中表示，未来几个月，全球油轮市场可能会因亚洲石油需求复苏而小幅受益，尽管不断上涨的燃料油价格可能限制租船商的上涨空间。
市场消息人士称，未来几周可能会有更多油轮进驻苏伊士以东，而产能过剩可能限制原油油轮的上涨空间。10月到11月期间，油轮每天运输的吨英里数增加了4%，但与去年11月相比仍下降了近11％。
上月对原油油轮的吨英里需求增加，部分原因是来自亚洲的强劲购买。
亚洲炼油商一直在大量采购中东、西非和欧洲的原油，这有助于缩小部分现货吨位。
尽管情况有所改善，但多数油轮市场的需求仍相当低迷。油轮活动的增加，加上随原油价格上涨而上涨的燃料油价格，仅为11月和12月初的油轮运费提供了微弱的支撑。
一位船舶经纪人表示:“亚洲的需求已经回升，但欧洲的购买量远远落后。”
有数据显示，2015年8月至12月，西非至东非航线的VLCC运费平均每年上涨66%。而截至2020年12月14日，这条航线的货运较8月1日下降了6.6%。
自2013年以来，船龄超过16年的超大型油轮的比例从10.3%增加了一倍，至21.5%。这使得目前共有179艘超大型油轮服役16年以上，无法满足现货市场上大多数承租人设定的要求。
目前2021年的订单量也是10年来最低，反映出人们越来越关注可再生能源的转型，以及未来监管和满足新标准的技术的不确定性。
预计2021年油轮船队的产能将增长2.7%，低于2019年6.1%的增速。
成品油油轮在亚洲受到轻质产品需求的支撑，而南非炼油产能出现短缺。
波斯湾-日本的中程油轮运费从3月12日的w96上升至12月15日的w115，基数3.5万吨。同一时期，远程油轮在同一航线上的运价(基数5.5万吨)已从w75跃升至w120。
这是由于亚太地区到东南亚的回程货运市场复苏，导致在波斯湾重新定位的交货时间延长。
石脑油裂解油在亚太地区的回归对市场起到了支撑作用。
此外，IEA表示，南非Engen炼油厂的临时关闭，打开了从波斯湾向该盆地发货的套利窗口，从而加强了该过程的可用性。
由于市场上不太有利的期货合约结构，12月对LRs的浮动存储询价放缓，而美洲的货物询价放缓也使大西洋盆地的传统贸易流变得迟钝。
冯娟 摘译自 化工网
原文如下：
Global tanker markets supported by Asian oil demand: IEA
Global tankers markets are likely to benefit modestly The coming weeks may see more product tankers positioning themselves East of Suez and an overhang of capacity could limit upside for crude tankers, according to market sources.
Ton-miles transported per day The increase in ton-mile demand for crude tankers last month was in part due to stronger buying from Asia.
Asian refiners have been picking up large volumes of Middle East, West Africa and European crude, which has helped shrink some of the spot tonnage.
Despite the improvement, demand remains quite depressed across most tanker segments. The increase in tanker activity, combined with rising bunker prices, tracking crude prices higher, 'Counter-cyclical'
The fourth quarter of the year is often associated with stronger earnings in the crude oil tanker market amid bad weather, port restrictions, ice-class vessel requirements, and increased demand for crude ahead of the holiday season.
"Given the cuts in production, this year has been counter-cyclical at best," Owners are traditionally bullish ahead of the holiday season, which has historically translated into an increase in fixing activity. But this year, sentiment is not as strong.
VLCC freight rates However, in 2020, freight "While we see more cargoes in the market, there is just too much tonnage," The proportion of VLCCs older than 16 years in the tanker fleet has doubled from 10.3% to 21.5% since 2013. This makes it a total of 179 VLCCs that are currently above 16 years old and not able to meet the requirements set by most charterers in the spot market.
The current order book for 2021 is also the lowest in 10 years, reflecting an increased focus The tanker fleet's capacity will grow by 2.7% in 2021, down from 6.1% growth in 2019, according to Platts Analytics.
Product tankers supported
Product tankers have drawn support demand for light products in Asia and a crunch in refining capacity in South Africa.
Medium Range tanker freight rates for Persian Gulf-Japan shipments, basis 35,000 mt, rose from Worldscale 96 Rates This has been due to the revival of the backhaul market for Asia-Pacific shipments to Southeast Asia, leading to longer lead times for repositioning in the Persian Gulf.
The market has been supported by the return of a key naphtha cracker in Asia Pacific.
South Korea's Lotte Chemical restarted its Daesan cracker In addition, the temporary shutdown of the Engen refinery in South Africa has opened an arbitrage window from the Persian Gulf to ship to the basin, tightening availability in the process, the IEA said.
Market participants in the clean tanker West of Suez markets are preferring to position vessels in the East of Suez markets due to the greater variety of options available.
Floating storage inquiries for LRs have slowed in December due to a less favorable contango structure in the market, and slowing cargo inquiries in the Americas have dulled traditional trade flows in the Atlantic Basin.