据能源世界网12月17日报道，受中国和印度带动的需求复苏推动，亚洲成品油精炼利润触及四个半月高位，但分析师警告称，这两个国家和其他出口国的出货量上升可能抑制进一步涨势。
根据Refinitiv的数据显示，新加坡基准的10ppm级汽油的炼油利润率在过去一个月飙升42%，但仍比今年同期的历史平均水平低54%。
自9月以来，中国和印度的运输和工业活动复苏，帮助提振了轻油市场人气，抑制了印度燃料出口，并收紧了地区库存。
欧洲的柴油精炼利润率最近小幅上升，而美国的利润率则基本持平，因季节性货运增加。
然而，明年炼油商预计将提高燃油产量，这可能会给所有关键市场的利润率和价格带来压力。
咨询公司FGE亚洲石油业务主管斯里?帕拉韦卡拉苏(Sri Paravaikkarasu)表示，总之，在2021年上半年的大部分时间里，亚洲的轻油综合体将继续面临持续的供应过剩和有限的套利机会。
据FGE估计，过去一个月炼厂日产量增加约80万桶，加上需求增长放缓，将使亚洲12月的轻油过剩量较上月增加约18万桶。
咨询公司JBC Energy预计2021年第一季度汽油价差将逐步改善，而伍德·麦肯齐（Wood Mackenzie）估计汽油需求将达到880万桶/日，而今年第四季度为870万桶/日。
2021年第一季度以后，轻油需求的增长将取决于地区和全球经济从当前的新冠疫情中恢复的情况。
由于新冠疫情，传统上较大的进口市场（例如欧洲）今年一直疲软，这限制了持有亚洲股票的交易者的套利机会。
几个欧洲国家的新一轮封锁，以及美国部分地区的严格限制，减缓了这些地区燃料需求的复苏，而这将是2021年全球柴油平衡的关键。
咨询公司JBC Energy的能源市场分析师菲利普?琼斯-勒克斯（Philip Jones-Lux）表示，亚洲轻油将在很大程度上受到2021年上半年欧洲需求的推动。
因成交量上升，且美国燃料库存增幅低于预期，欧洲市场柴油价差周三收稳至每桶5.50美元左右。
包括轻油在内的美国馏分油库存本周增加16.7万桶，至1.513亿桶，此前预期为增加88.6万桶。
郝芬 译自 能源世界
原文如下：
Global gasoil refining profits perk up, but rising supply threat looms
Asian refining profits for gasoil have hit 4-1/2-month highs Refining margins, also known as cracks, for the benchmark 10 ppm gasoil grade in Singapore have surged 42 per cent in the last month, but remain 54 per cent weaker than their historical average for this time of year, Refinitiv data showed.
Revived transportation and industrial activity in China and India since September have helped boost gasoil market sentiment, curbing Indian fuel exports and tightening regional stocks.
Diesel refining margins in Europe have edged higher lately and have held largely flat in the United States However, refiners are expected to boost fuel output heading into 2021, potentially pressuring margins and prices in all key markets.
"Overall, Asia's gasoil complex will continue to struggle with the persistent supply overhang and limited arbitrage opportunities through large parts of the first half of 2021," said Sri Paravaikkarasu, director for Asia oil at consultancy FGE.
FGE estimates refinery runs have increased by about 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) over the last month, which alongside slowing demand growth would make the Asian gasoil surplus increase by some 180,000 bpd month-on-month in December.
Consultancy JBC Energy expects a gradual improvement in gasoil cracks in the first quarter of 2021, while Wood Mackenzie estimates gasoil demand to reach 8.8 million bpd, compared with 8.7 million bpd in Q4 2020.
Beyond Q1 2021, gasoil demand growth will depend Traditionally large import markets such as Europe have been weak this year due to COVID-19, limiting arbitrage opportunities for traders sitting Fresh lockdowns in several European countries, as well as tightening restrictions in parts of the United States, are slowing the fuel demand recovery in those regions, which will be key to the global diesel balance in 2021.
"Asian gasoil will be in large part driven by what happens to demand in Europe over the first part of 2021," said Philip Jones-Lux, energy market analyst at consultancy JBC Energy.
Diesel cracks in Europe firmed to around $5.50 a barrel Wednesday U.S. distillate stocks, which include gasoil, rose by 167,000 barrels in the week to 151.3 million barrels versus expectations for an 886,000-barrel rise.