据能源经济1月17日消息称，根据麦肯锡公司的最新研究，化石燃料总需求将在2027年见顶，石油将在2029年见顶，天然气将在2037年见顶，部分原因是疫情影响。
《2021年全球能源展望》报告发现，虽然煤炭需求已经见顶，但石油和天然气需求的峰值即将到来，分别在2029年和2037年回落。
大流行导致能源需求大幅下降，麦肯锡预计需要1至4年时间才能恢复，电力和天然气需求的反弹速度预计将快于石油需求。然而，对化石燃料的需求永远不会回到大流行前的增长曲线。从长期来看，与“已知”的长期变化相比，COVID-19造成的行为变化的影响较小，这些变化包括汽车保有量减少、燃料效率提高和电动汽车的趋势，据估计，到2050年，电动汽车的影响将比大流行的影响高出3至9倍。
麦肯锡的高级合伙人克里斯特·特里格加斯塔德（Christer Tryggestad）表示：“尽管这场大流行无疑给能源部门的所有燃料来源带来了巨大冲击，但本世纪的故事仍是向低碳能源体系快速而持续的转变。”
“到2050年，电力在能源结构中所占的份额将增长约50%，随着碳氢化合物消费趋于平稳，电力将占据全球所有能源增长。然而，在我们的参考案例中，化石燃料在可预见的未来仍将扮演重要角色。”
事实上，尽管世界各地的能源系统将转向可再生能源(在大多数地方，可再生能源已经能够与化石能源的边际成本竞争)，但根据麦肯锡的参考案例情景，到2050年，化石燃料将继续满足全球一半以上的能源需求。
因此，尽管早期的碳氢化合物需求峰值意味着碳排放的大幅减少，但全球仍将大大偏离1.5°C的轨道，并将在本世纪30年代初耗尽2100年的碳预算。
特里格加斯塔德总结说：“要避免严重的全球气候变化，还有很长的路要走。据我们估计，要将全球气温上升限制在1.5摄氏度以内，到2030年年排放量需要比目前趋势预测的低50%左右，到2050年需要比目前趋势预测的低85%左右。”
“过去一年，政策的重要性有所增加。尽管脱碳的势头有所增强，但许多政府仍需要将雄心勃勃的目标转变成具体行动。此外，鉴于COVID-19后许多经济复苏方案的规模无与伦比，刺激措施的重点将在未来几十年塑造能源体系方面发挥关键作用。”
朱佳妮 摘译自 能源经济
原文如下：
McKinsey research indicates aggregate fossil fuel demand set to peak in 2027
Aggregate fossil fuel demand is set to peak in 2027 – with oil peaking in 2029 and gas in 2037 – partially due to the impacts of COVID-19, according to new research by McKinsey & Co.
The Global Energy Perspective 2021 report finds that while coal demand peaked already, peaks in demand for oil and gas are not far behind – falling in 2029 and 2037, respectively.
The pandemic has resulted in a profound reduction in energy demand, from which McKinsey expects it will take between 1 – 4 years to recover – with electricity and gas demand expected to bounce back more quickly than demand for oil. However, demand for fossil fuels will never return to its pre-pandemic growth curve. Over the long-term, the impacts of behavioural shifts due to COVID-19 are minor compared to ‘known’ long-term shifts such as decreasing car ownership, growing fuel efficiencies and a trend towards electric vehicles, whose impact is estimated to be three-to-nine times higher than the pandemic’s by 2050.
Christer Tryggestad, Senior Partner at McKinsey, said: “While the pandemic has certainly provided a substantial shock for the energy sector across all fuel sources, the story of the century is still a rapid and continuous shift to lower-carbon energy systems.”
“The share of electricity in the energy mix is set to grow by around 50% by 2050 and it’s set to capture all global energy growth as hydrocarbon consumption plateaus. However, in our Reference case, fossil fuels continue to play a significant role for the foreseeable future.”
Indeed, while energy systems around the world will shift to renewables, which are able to compete with the marginal cost of fossil power already today in most places, by 2050 more than half of all global energy demand continues to be met by fossil fuels in McKinsey’s Reference Case scenario.
As a result, while the earlier peak of hydrocarbon demand means a substantial reduction in forecasted carbon emissions, the world remains significantly off of the 1.5°C pathway and will run out of its carbon budget for 2100 in the early 2030s.
Tryggestad concluded: “There is still a long way to go to avert substantial global climate change. According to our estimates, annual emissions would need to be around 50% lower in 2030 and about 85% lower by 2050 than current trends predict to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C.”
“The importance of policies has increased in the past year. Despite the increased momentum towards decarbonisation, many governments still need to translate ambitious targets into specific actions. Additionally, given the unparalleled size of many economic recovery packages post COVID-19, the focus of the stimulus measures will play a key role in shaping energy systems in the decades to come.”