据今日油价网站1月21日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）周四在其短期能源展望（STEO）中估计，今年第一季度美国原油基准WTI平均价格将为每桶56美元。
这比2020年12月每桶50美元的平均水平增加了6美元，主要是因为预计今年全球对石油的需求将更大，尤其是在第一季度。
需求增加应该会导致库存减少，尽管美国石油学会（API）昨日估计的原油价格与这一预期并不一致。美国石油学会周三估计，美国原油库存已再增加256.2万桶。
虽然EIA预计第一季度石油需求将上升，但最近病例的上升将继续限制2021年上半年的全球石油需求。
尽管如此，EIA预计2021年美国国内生产总值将增长5.4%，导致能源消耗增长。2021年全球液体燃料消耗预计今年平均为9780万桶/日。
相比之下，疫情开始前的2019年，全球消费量为1.012亿桶/日。
WTI现货价格周四稍高于每桶53美元，在美国石油学会周三公布库存增加后下跌，中国因冠状病毒病例增加而加强了封锁。
但EIA看好油价。EIA预计，全球库存减少将有助于预测2021年第一季度原油价格的上涨。尽管2021年初预测原油价格上涨，但EIA预计，由于全球石油库存高企，原油产能过剩，2021年第一季度后库存减少，在整个预测期内，价格上涨压力将受到限制。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
EIA Sees WTI at $56 For Q1 2021
The U.S. crude oil benchmark WTI will average $56 per barrel across the first quarter of this year, the Energy Information Administration has estimated in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) This is a $6 increase from the December 2020 average of $50 per barrel, mainly due to expectations that the global demand for petroleum liquids will be greater this year—especially in the first quarter.
This reality should lead to inventory draws, although yesterday’s estimated crude oil by the API did not deliver results consistent with this expectation. While the EIA expects oil demand to rise in Q1, “the recent rise in COVID-19 cases will continue to limit global oil demand in the first half of 2021.”
Nevertheless, the EIA is expects U.S. GDP by 5.4% in 2021, “leading to energy consumption growth.” Global consumption of liquid fuels in 2021 are expected to average 97.8 million barrels per day this year.
For comparison, global consumption was 101.2 million barrels per day in 2019 before the pandemic began.
WTI spot prices were hovering slightly above $53 per barrel But the EIA is bullish for oil prices. “EIA expects global inventory draws will contribute to forecast rising crude oil prices in the first quarter of 2021. Despite rising forecast crude oil prices in early 2021, EIA expects upward price pressure will be limited through the forecast period because of high global oil inventory, surplus crude oil production capacity, and stock draws decreasing after the first quarter of 2021.”