据1月27日Oil Now报道，随着疫苗和财政刺激计划的推出将有助于全球经济从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏，国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示,2021年石油价格预计将略高于平均50美元/桶，较2020年低迷水平增长了21%以上。
根据IMF的预测，新石油生产国圭亚那将从政府出口的每批货物中获得约5000万美元的收入，相当于其其在Liza一期开发项目中所占的份额。
2020年，该国从四次产量提升中出口了400万桶石油，从石油销售和特许权使用费中获得了大约2亿美元。由于产量不足，计划中的第五次出口未能完成。
2020年11月，印度自然资源部长维克拉姆?巴拉特(Vickram Bharrat)在接受采访时表示:“我认为今年不可能实现第五次增产。但根据协议，我们将在2021年推动埃克森美孚进行增产，以弥补本应在2020年完成的一次增产。”
IMF目前预计全球GDP在2020年萎缩3.5%后，2021年将增长5.5%。与去年10月发布的预测相比，2020年的数据被向上修正了0.9个百分点，2021年的预测被提升了0.3个百分点。
IMF表示，鉴于油价前景黯淡，且跨境旅游正常化进程预计将非常缓慢，石油出口国和旅游业经济体的前景尤其艰难。
值得一提的是，IMF使用布伦特、迪拜和西德克萨斯中质油价格的简单平均值来计算其油价。按照这种方法，IMF表示，2020年的平均油价为41.29美元/桶，2021年将升至50.03美元/桶，然后在2022年回落至48.82美元/桶。
王佳晶 摘译自 Oil Now
原文如下：
IMF oil price forecast could see Guyana earning around $50 million per lift this year
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in an updated forecast that oil prices are expected to average just above $50/b in 2021, a more than 21% rise from 2020’s depressed level, as the rollout of vaccines and fiscal stimulus programs will help the global economy post a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic.
The IMF’s projections could see new oil producer Guyana earning around US$50 million from each cargo exported by the government, representing its share of crude from the Liza Phase 1 Development.
Last year the country earned around US$200 million from oil sales and royalty having exported 4 million barrels of oil from four lifts. A production shortfall had prevented the scheduled 5 oil lifts that was slated for the government.
Speaking to OilNOW in November, Natural Resources Minister, Vickram Bharrat had said, “I don’t see how a fifth lift is possible this year. But we’re going to push them [ExxonMobil] next year [2021] to make up for the It said Tuesday the IMF now expects global GDP to grow 5.5% in 2021, after a 3.5% contraction in 2020. The 2020 figure has been revised up 0.9 percentage point from the previous forecast issued in October, while the 2021 estimate is a 0.3 percentage point upward revision.
“Oil exporters and tourism-based economies face particularly difficult prospects given the subdued outlook for oil prices and expected slow normalization of cross-border travel,” the IMF said.
According to Platts, the IMF uses a simple average of prices of Brent, Dubai and WTI to calculate its oil prices. With that methodology, the IMF said oil prices averaged $41.29/b in 2020 and would rise to $50.03/b in 2021, before falling back to $48.82/b in 2022.