据8月16日Oil Now报道,在8月16日亚洲早盘交易中,原油期货价格走低。作为石油消费大国的中国出台的限制措施,影响了石油的流动性,加上美国新冠肺炎病例增多,投资者对德尔塔变异病毒快速蔓延的担忧重新出现。
新加坡时间上午10:51 (格林尼治时间02:51),洲际交易所10月布伦特原油期货合约较之前收盘价下跌80美分/桶(1.13%),至69.79美元/桶,而纽约商品交易所9月轻质低硫原油合约价格下跌77美分/桶(1.13%),至67.67美元/桶。
Vanda Insights首席执行官Vandana Hari表示,“对变异病毒的担忧正进一步控制着石油市场情绪。西方夏季旅游和旅游业的繁荣正在逐渐消失,病毒继续在世界各地蔓延”。
分析师表示,8月16日油价下跌可能只是短暂的,因为随着本周的进展,投资者需要时间来重新评估供求前景,“贸易模式显示出的是恐惧和从众心理,而不是冷静地重新调整需求。最近几周,我们看到了类似的‘恐慌星期一’”。
美国新冠肺炎病例数量持续增长。8月12日,美国疾病控制与预防中心报告了自2021年1月以来的最高病例数,为146949例。截至8月13日,7天移动平均数为119523例,是7月初平均值的6倍多。
此外,需求前景仍然高度不确定。上周,国际能源署(IEA)指出,由于亚洲其他地区的新冠肺炎疫情重新出现,7月份的石油需求下降了12万桶/天,并将2021年下半年的需求预测下调了60万桶/天,至9815万桶/天。
与此同时,欧佩克在8月12日表示,其对2021年和2022年的全球需求预测保持不变,未来几个月石油需求应继续高于供应。
王佳晶 摘译自 Oil Now
原文如下:
Delta tightening grip align="justify"> Crude oil futures were lower during mid-morning Asian trade Aug. 16 as investor concerns over the fast-spreading delta variant resurfaced amid restrictive movement curbs in oil consuming giant China and growing number of cases in the US.
At 10:51 am Singapore time (0251 GMT), the ICE October Brent futures contract was down 80 cents/b (1.13%) from the previous close at $69.79/b, while the NYMEX September light sweet crude contract similarly fell 77 cents/b (1.13%) at $67.67/b.
“The delta [variant] worries are tightening their grip align="justify"> Analysts said the Aug. 16 dip in oil markers may be short-lived as investors take time to reassess the supply-demand outlook as the week progresses.
“The trade patterns suggest fear and a herd mentality more than a cool-headed recalibration of demand. We have seen a few such “panic Mondays” in recent weeks,” Hari said.
COVID-19 case numbers in the US have continued to grow. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention align="justify"> The demand outlook remains highly uncertain. Last week, the International Energy Agency pointed to a 120,000 b/d drop in July oil demand because of the coronavirus resurgence in other parts of Asia, and had cut its second-half 2021 demand estimate by 600,000 b/d to 98.15 million b/d.
OPEC, meanwhile, said on Aug. 12 it was keeping its global demand forecasts for 2021 and 2022 unchanged, and that oil demand should remain higher than supply over the coming months.