据油价网2021年8月19日报道，新冠肺炎疫情对下游石油行业的冲击很可能比勘探和生产行业更严重，并导致更长的痛苦。 但现在，由于油价从今年早些时候创下的多年高位回落，人们开始开车上路，美国炼油商的情况终于开始好转。
7月下旬，路透社报道称，由于全球最大的石油消费国的燃料需求几乎恢复到了疫情前的水平，美国炼油企业即将公布一年来首个盈利季度。 当时，美国最大的三家炼油企业——瓦莱罗、菲利普斯66和马拉松石油公司——公布的利润总额为6.75亿美元。
如今，《华尔街日报》报道了更多针对美国炼油企业的好消息，这将增加它们再次实现季度盈利的机会，尽管今年早些时候分析师们也曾表达了担忧。 石油价格强劲上涨，促使美国呼吁欧佩克+提高产量，但美国炼油商可能不同意。 自夏季驾驶季节开始以来，汽油需求一直强劲。 这可能会随着驾驶季节的结束而改变，但很有可能不会像去年那样发生翻天覆地的变化。
据《华尔街日报》报道，原油期货和汽油期货之间的差额——炼油企业的利润率(以当天为准)达到了每桶25.58美元。 这接近2016年以来的最高利润率。 难怪美国炼油厂的开工率超过了90%，而今年早些时候只有80%左右。
事实上，美国能源信息署(EIA)的最新数据证实了美国炼油行业前景的改善。 EIA在其8月份的《短期能源展望》报告中称，今年上半年美国汽油消费量已从2020年同期的830万桶/天恢复至860万桶/天。 然而，这仍远低于2019年上半年930万桶/天的消费量。
尽管如此，EIA在其报告中也指出，因就业反弹和流动性增加，5月、6月和7月汽油消费强于预期，促使EIA预测全年复苏至880万桶/天，明年将攀升至900万桶天。 但由于许多人仍将选择远程工作，EIA在其报告中称，2022年汽油需求不太可能回升至2019年的水平。
这对炼油商来说都是好消息。 得益于强劲的汽油需求，美国炼油领域的三大巨头第二季度的利润大大超出了分析师的预期，仅马拉松石油公司就公布了超过分析师预计的6.75亿美元的利润。 这家炼油商今年第二季度录得利润7.51亿美元，瓦莱罗能源公司则录得利润3.61亿美元，重新扭亏为盈。
尽管今年美国炼油行业出现反弹，但挑战依然存在。 其中最大的挑战似乎是与可再生燃料信贷有关的成本。 据《华尔街日报》报道，由于可再生能源信贷成本上升，瓦莱罗能源公司第二季度炼油业务出现亏损。 然而，参议院最近提出的一项法案可能会改变这一点，尽管从炼油商的角度来看，这种改变可能会变得更糟。
显然，某种生物燃料的混合以及炼油商的相关成本是无法逃避的。 但只要对他们产品的需求保持强劲，底线就应该是安全的。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
U.S. Refiners Are Making A Comeback
The pandemic very likely hit the downstream oil even more severely than exploration and production and led to longer suffering. But now, things are finally beginning to look up for U.S. refiners as people take to the roads while oil prices retreat from multi-year highs reached earlier this year.
In late July, Reuters reported that refiners were about to report their first profitable quarter in a year as demand for fuels recovered almost to pre-pandemic levels in the world's largest consumer of oil. At the time, the top three refiners in the country—Valero, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum—were seen reporting a combined $675 million in profits.
Now, the Wall Street Journal reports more good news for refiners that would increase their chances of having another profitable quarter despite analyst worries expressed earlier this year. Prices at the pump have rallied strongly, prompting US to call align="justify"> According to the Wall Street Journal, refiners' profit margins, which are an expression of the difference between crude oil and gasoline futures, stood at $25.58 per barrel as of yesterday. This was close to the highest margin recorded since 2016. No wonder refineries are operating at more than 90 percent of capacity, compared with around 80 percent earlier this year.
Indeed, the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration confirm the improved outlook for the industry. In the August edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said gasoline consumption in the United States had recovered to 8.6 million bpd in the first half of the year, from 8.3 million bpd for the same period of 2020. Yet this was still far below the 9.3 million bpd consumed during the first half of 2019.
Be that as it may, the EIA also noted in its report that during May, June, and July, gasoline consumption was stronger than expected, prompting it to forecast full-year recovery to 8.8 million bpd, climbing to 9 million bpd next year as employment rebounds and with it mobility increases. But because many will still opt for remote work, the EIA said in its report, recovery in gasoline demand to 2019 levels was unlikely in 2022.
That's all good news for refiners. Thanks to strong gasoline demand, the top three players in the field greatly exceeded analysts' profit predictions for the second quarter, with Marathon alone reporting more than the combined $675 million analysts had estimated. The refiner booked profits of $751 million for the second quarter of the year, and Valero reported $361 million, swinging back into the black.
Despite the rebound in the refining industry this year, challenges remained. The biggest among these appeared to be costs associated with renewable fuel credits. According to the WSJ, Valero reported a loss at its refining business for the second quarter because of higher renewable credit costs. Yet a bill recently introduced in Senate might change that, although the change may be for the worse from refiners' perspectives.
There will be clearly no escape from some sort of biofuel blending and the associated costs for refiners. But as long as demand for their products remains strong, bottom lines should be safe.