据油价网2021年8月25日报道，全球石油需求和钻井活动的不断复苏使得油田服务公司对这个行业近期和中期的前景都持乐观态度。
油田服务提供商日前先后公布的第二季度收益超过了分析师们的预期。 但更重要的是，专注于不同领域(从水力压裂到海上钻探)的公司表示，尽管最近感染德尔塔变异毒株病例数激增，但石油服务行业在未来几个季度甚至几年里将面临扎实可靠的复苏。
市场似乎也相信，全球石油需求的复苏将推动钻井活动。 受油价和需求上涨的推动，油田服务公司的股价在过去一年中有所回升。
斯伦贝谢公司的股价在过去的12个月里上涨了46.5%，赫尔默里奇和佩恩材料公司的股价在过去一年里上涨了54%，哈里伯顿公司的股价上涨了24%，贝克休斯公司的股价上涨了42%,和越洋公司的股价2020年8月以来已经上涨了159%。
美国钻机数量的增加和原油产量的增加也支持了复苏正在进行的观点。
截至8月20日，美国的在用钻机总数为503部，比去年同期增加249部，这是自2020年4月以来的最高在用钻机数，但与2020年3月的790部相比仍大幅下降。美国能源信息署（ EIA）对截至8月13日当周美国原油产量的预估连续第三周日增10万桶，平均原油日产量达到1140万桶。
此外，美国能源劳动力与技术委员会8月早些时候根据美国劳工统计局(BLS)的初步数据进行的分析显示，油田服务行业目前已经连续第5个月出现就业增长，7月份预计新增6082个就业岗位。 该委员会估计，油田服务行业已恢复约38300个就业岗位，此前因疫情导致的失业人数最高曾超过11.5万人。
油田服务公司的高管最近几周说，他们预计油田活动和业务将持续复苏，可能持续多年。
全球三大油田服务提供商预计，疫苗推动的全球石油需求复苏将持续到未来几个季度，这将导致下一个石油钻井和完井需求的上升周期。
哈里伯顿公司董事长、总裁兼首席执行官杰夫·米勒在7月份发布的第二季度业绩中表示：“我们目前在北美和国际市场看到的积极活动势头，加上我们对未来客户需求的预期，使我们确信这将是一个持续多年的上升周期。”
贝克休斯公司董事长兼首席执行官洛伦佐•西蒙内利表示：“尽管我们认识到COVID-19变异毒株带来的风险，但我们预计，随着宏观环境的改善，支出和活动水平将在今年获得增长势头，可能为该行业在2022年实现更强劲的增长创造条件。”
斯伦贝谢公司首席执行官Olivier Le Peuch在公司第二季度收益电话会议上表示：“由于油价处于高位，供应对这种需求复苏的反应正在广泛地如预期发展。事实上，这一组合导致了短周期产量的增加，以及长周期项目的增加，这反映在第二季度新的最终投资决定数和鼓励海上开发和近油田勘探活动的复苏上。”
赫尔默里奇和佩恩材料公司首席执行官约翰·林赛在7月底表示：“假设油价保持稳定，接近当前水平，我们将不会在看到上市公司明年的预算将进一步增加钻井活动而感到惊讶。”
赫尔默里奇和佩恩材料公司表示，二叠纪盆地将继续引领在用钻机数的增加。
位于得克萨斯州米德兰的为北美地区压裂作业提供压力泵的ProPetro控股公司在8月初表示，“压力泵行业正面临即将到来的再投资周期，这将需要创新的解决方案来满足市场的需求。”
ProPetro控股公司董事长兼首席执行官菲利普·戈布表示：“在我们应对COVID-19和其他潜在变化的过程中，波动性仍将存在，但油价基本面似乎强劲，有望持续复苏。”
他补充说：“时机仍不确定，因为我们仍处于多年复苏的初期阶段。”
油田服务公司的高管们说，美国以外的地区也在复苏，并将在未来几个月加速复苏。
“在与客户的持续对话的支持下，我们相信我们正处于海上钻井活动可持续复苏的开端。 假设油价保持乐观，我们相信在2022年及以后，我们将看到海上钻井市场进一步强劲复苏。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Frackers See Light At The End Of The Tunnel In Oil Markets
Recovering global oil demand and drilling activity has made oilfield services firms optimistic about the sector’s prospects not align="justify"> Oilfield service providers reported second-quarter earnings that beat analyst forecasts. But more importantly, companies specializing in different segments—from fracking to offshore drilling—expressed confidence that the oil services industry now faces a solid recovery in the coming quarters and even years, despite the recent Delta variant surge.
The market also seems to believe that recovering global oil demand will boost drilling activity. Shares of oilfield services firms have rallied over the past year, driven by rising oil prices and demand.
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) is up 46.5 percent in the past 12 months, Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP) is up 54 percent, Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) stock has gained 24 percent, Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKR) has seen shares rise by 42 percent over the past year, and Transocean (NYSE: RIG) has surged by 159 percent since August 2020.
The rising U.S. rig count and the increase in American crude oil production also support the view that a recovery is underway.
As of August 20, the total rig count in the U.S. was 503 active rigs, up by 249 from the same time last year—the highest rig count since April 2020, but still down sharply from the 790 active rigs in March 2020. The EIA’s estimate for U.S. crude oil production for the week ending August 13 rose by 100,000 bpd for the third week in a row to an average of 11.4 million bpd.
Moreover, the oilfield services sector has now seen a fifth consecutive month of job growth, adding an estimated 6,082 jobs in July, the Energy Workforce & Technology Council said earlier this month in an analysis based align="justify"> Executives at oilfield services firms said in recent weeks that they expect a lasting, possibly a multi-year, recovery in activity and in their business.
The world’s three largest oilfield services providers expect the vaccine-driven recovery in global oil demand to continue through the coming quarters, which they expect will lead to the next upcycle in demand for oil drilling and completions.
“The positive activity momentum we see in North America and international markets today, combined with our expectations for future customer demand, gives us conviction for an unfolding multi-year upcycle,” Jeff Miller, Halliburton’s chairman, president, and CEO, said last month in the Q2 results release.
“Although we recognize the risks presented by the variant strains of the COVID-19 virus, we expect spending and activity levels to gain momentum through the year as the macro environment improves, likely setting up the industry for stronger growth in 2022,” Baker Hughes chairman and CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said.
“With oil price at elevated levels, the supply response to this demand recovery is developing broadly as anticipated. Indeed, this combination has resulted in a call align="justify"> Helmerich & Payne CEO John Lindsay said at the end of July, “Assuming oil prices remain stable and near current levels, we would not be surprised to see 2022 budgets for public companies drive further incremental increases in rig activity next year.”
The Permian will continue to lead the way in active rig gains, Helmerich & Payne says.
Midland, Texas-based ProPetro Holding, which provides pressure pumping for fracking in North America, said in early August that “the pressure pumping industry is faced with an impending reinvestment cycle that will require innovative solutions to meet the needs of the market.”
“As we navigate the COVID-19 delta and potentially other variants, volatility will remain, but oil price fundamentals appear strong for a continued recovery,” ProPetro chairman CEO Phillip Gobe said.
“Timing remains uncertain as we’re still in the early innings of what we view as a multiyear recovery,” he added.
Outside the United States, recovery is also underway and will accelerate in the coming months, executives say.
“Supported by the ongoing conversations with our customers, we believe we are at the beginning of a sustainable recovery for offshore drilling. Assuming oil prices remain constructive, we believe we will witness a robust offshore market recovery in 2022 and beyond,” Transocean’s CEO Jeremy Thigpen said on the Q2 earnings call earlier this month.