据油价网 2021年8月25日报道，8月早些时候，由于液化天然气(LNG)短缺迫在眉睫，分析师们对欧洲的能源安全敲响了警钟，而造成欧洲这种LNG短缺局面的罪魁祸首被认为是亚洲对这种超冷燃料的需求增强。
但需求永远只是故事的一面。
路透社的克莱德•拉塞尔最近在一篇专栏文章中指出，由于计划维修作业和供应中断，需求不断上升，近几个月全球LNG的供应已经收紧。
拉塞尔以澳大利亚和美国为例，说明定期维修可能是LNG出口量减少的最好解释。 但彭博社的Anna Shiryaevskaya在8月早些时候称，一些天然气生产商一直在努力解决与疫情时期需求疲软相关的检修问题，并指出世界其他地区的LNG终端供应中断。
美国能源信息署（EIA）还指出，澳大利亚、马来西亚、尼日利亚、阿尔及利亚、挪威以及特立尼达和多巴哥的LNG厂供应中断是美国增加LNG出口的一个原因。 然而，即使有了这种增长，美国的LNG仍不足以满足全球对这种燃烧清洁的燃料的需求。
与此同时，由于夏季更热导致电力需求增加，亚洲的需求预计将持续高于往年同期。 欧洲正拼命努力在冬季到来之前填满天然气储库，但能否成功仍是一个很大的问号，因为欧洲正与亚洲进口商直接竞争有限的LNG产量。 至于管道天然气进口，欧洲仍然依赖俄罗斯。由于俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司一个设施发生火灾，俄罗斯最近减少了LNG出口量，尽管这种减少是暂时的。
在全球范围内，LNG进口国可能仍将主要依赖卡塔尔。 这是因为卡塔尔是唯一一个在需求激增期间增产的LNG生产国。 据路透社的拉塞尔援引航运情报公司Kpler的数据，7月份全球LNG进口总量为3096万吨。 这比去年7月的2820万吨有所增加。
不过，8月全球的LNG进口量可能会更高，估计为3188万吨。LNG出口商是否能够满足这一需求的问题仍然悬而未决，但在所有可能性中，我们将看到现货市场上会出现更高的LNG价格。
这种现状可能会持续下去：彭博社的Shiryaevskaya引述俄罗斯诺瓦泰克副首席执行官Mark Gyetvay在8月早些时候的讲话内容报道说，在今年剩余时间里，亚洲对LNG的需求预计将保持强劲。 事实上，在秋季短暂的喘息之后，冬季通常会提高对这种燃料的需求，因为供暖需求将取代空调需求。
出于同样的原因，欧洲对LNG和天然气的需求总体上可能也会保持强劲，因为欧洲大陆正试图为寒冷的冬季做准备。 这种情况对LNG生产商来说非常受欢迎。对于俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司来说，这也应该是令人满意的事情，因为欧洲正急切地期待着北溪-2管道的启动，这将为这个天然气匮乏的欧洲大陆每年增加550亿立方米的天然气供应量。
据EIA预测，今年美国LNG出口量将首次超过管道天然气出口量。EIA在其最新的《短期能源展望》报告中表示，今年和明年全球对这两种燃料的需求都将继续增长，这表明目前LNG和天然气的基本面仍将维持一段时间。
当前天然气市场动态中一个有趣的方面是，欧洲似乎并没有坚持低碳LNG。 今年早些时候，欧盟坚称其接收的LNG具有低碳足迹，此举激怒了一些能源行业，但随着冬季供应的安全性超过排放足迹，优先事项似乎发生了很大变化。
LNG市场上的动态还表明壳牌公司和英国石油公司等预测者预计，LNG的需求依然强劲。
就对进口的依赖而言，德国的情况同样适用于欧洲和亚洲，无论这些进口来自哪里。 尽管围绕天然气和LNG的说法已从其作为一种过渡性燃料转变为基本上不比煤炭和石油好多少的燃料，但能源安全的现实表明，在未来好几年，天然气将很可能继续享受强劲的需求。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
LNG’s Position As A Bridge Fuel Remains Strong
When earlier this month analysts sounded the alarm for Europe’s energy security because of the looming shortage of liquefied natural gas, the culprit behind the situation was identified as stronger demand for the superchilled fuel from Asia.
But demand is always just align="justify"> The supply of liquefied natural gas globally has tightened in recent months amid rising demand because of planned maintenance operations and outages, Reuters’ Clyde Russell noted in a recent column.
Russell points to Australia and the United States as examples of how regular maintenance can perhaps best explain the reduction in exported LNG volumes. But some gas producers have been struggling with pandemic-related maintenance issues, Bloomberg’s Anna Shiryaevskaya reported earlier this month, also pointing out the supply outages at LNG terminals in other parts of the world.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has also noted supply outages at LNG plants in Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria, Norway, and Trinidad and Tobago as align="justify"> Meanwhile, Asian demand is seen continuing stronger than usual for this time of year because of a hotter summer that led to greater electricity demand. Europe is desperately trying to fill its gas storage ahead of winter, but there is a big question mark over whether it would succeed as it is competing directly with Asian importers for limited LNG volumes. As for pipeline imports, Europe remains dependent align="justify"> Globally, LNG importers will likely continue to rely mostly align="justify"> This month’s imports, however, are likely to be even higher, at an estimated 31.88 million tons. The question of whether exporters will be able to meet this demand remains open, but in all likelihood, we will see even higher LNG prices align="justify"> The situation may persist: Bloomberg’s Shiryaevskaya quoted Russian Novatek’s deputy CEO Mark Gyetvay as saying earlier this month that demand for LNG was expected to remain strong in Asia through the rest of the year. Indeed, after a short breather in the autumn, winter normally lifts demand for fuels as heating demand replaces demand for air conditioning.
By the same token, demand for LNG and gas, in general, is likely to remain strong in Europe as well, as the continent tries to prepare for the winter. The situation is very welcome for LNG producers. It should also be gratifying for Gazprom because Europe is now eagerly anticipating the start of the Nord Stream pipeline，which would add 55 billion cu m in annual export volumes to the gas-starved continent.
According to the EIA, U.S. LNG exports this year will exceed its pipeline exports for the first time since the country started exporting liquefied natural gas. Both will continue to grow both this year and next, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, suggesting the current fundamentals in LNG and gas will remain for a while.
One interesting aspect of the current gas market dynamics is that Europe does not appear to insist align="justify"> The dynamics align="justify"> What is true for Germany is true for Europe and Asia in terms of dependence on imports, regardless of their origin. While the narrative around natural gas and LNG has shifted from it being a bridge fuel to it being no better than coal and oil basically, the realities of energy security suggest gas will likely continue enjoying strong demand for years more to come.