据天然气加工网站9月10日报道 美国天然气交易商预计明年产量将大幅增加，因为该行业将通过加大钻井力度应对价格上涨，这将确保2022~2023年冬季的供应更加充足。
因此，路易斯安那州亨利中心2023年1月交货的期货价格目前约为1.15美元/百万英热单位，低于2022年1月交货的价格。
亨利中心的一年期利差约有四分之三的时间在康坦戈交易，这反映了储存一种气态商品的高成本和低成交量价值，因此目前的溢价是不寻常的。
目前，自2007年初以来的所有交易日的利差均为98%，这表明预计今年冬季供应将异常紧张，明年将大幅改善。
在疫情的第一阶段，美国的月干气产量从2019年12月创纪录的850亿立方米下降到2020年6月的750亿立方米。
根据油田服务公司贝克休斯的数据，在同一时期，以含气地层为主的钻机数量从130多台下降到不足70台。
然而，自那时以来，随着天然气价格的回升，钻井和生产都出现了缓慢但稳定的增长。
期货价格从2020年6月不到1.50美元的低点攀升至5.00美元/百万英热单位以上，这是七年多来的最高水平。
截至今年6月，产量已恢复到790亿立方米，而到9月初，活跃钻机数量已增加到略多于100台。
在未来几个月内，更高的价格将吸引更多的钻机重新进入天然气市场，导致产量从2022年第二季度开始增加，尤其是从2022年第三季度开始。
更高的产量也将支持明年对欧洲和亚洲出口的增加，而欧洲和亚洲的短缺更为严重，有助于全球天然气供应的改善。
然而，与此同时，价格将不得不上涨到足以限制消费的程度，这会导致发电商在今年冬天减少燃气发电机组的运行时间，转而使用燃煤机组。
王磊 摘译自 天然气加工
原文如下：
U.S. gas production set for big increase in 2022
U.S. gas traders are anticipating a big increase in production over the next year as the industry responds to higher prices by ramping up drilling, which should ensure supplies are more plentiful in time for winter 2022/23.
As a result, futures prices for deliveries at Louisiana's Henry Hub in January 2023 are currently trading around $1.15 per million British thermal units below prices for deliveries in January 2022.
Henry Hub's align="justify"> The spread is currently in the 98th percentile for all trading days since the start of 2007, indicating supplies are expected to be exceptionally tight this winter, before improving significantly next year.
During the first phase of the epidemic, monthly U.S. dry gas production slumped to just 75 billion cubic metres in June 2020, down from a record 85 billion cubic metres in December 2019.
The number of rigs targeting primarily gas-bearing formations slumped to less than 70, from more than 130, over a similar period, according to field services company Baker Hughes.
Since then, however, there has been a slow but steady increase in both drilling and production in response to the recovery in gas prices.
Front-month futures prices have climbed to more than $5.00 per million British thermal units, the highest level for more than seven years, up from a low of less than $1.50 in June 2020.
By June this year, production had already recovered to 79 billion cubic metres, while the active rig count had increased to just over 100 by early September.
In the next few months, higher prices will draw even more rigs back into the gas market, leading to an increase in production from the second quarter and especially the third quarter of 2022.
Higher production will also support an increase in exports next year to Europe and Asia, where the shortfall is even more severe, contributing to an improvement in gas supplies globally.
In the meantime, however, prices will have to rise high enough to restrict consumption, mostly by encouraging power producers to run gas-fired generating units for fewer hours this winter, reverting to coal-fired units instead.