据能源世界网9月10日伦敦报道，全球实际天然气价格已攀升至7年来最高水平，因为交易员预计今年冬天将出现短缺，消费量从去年疫情的低迷中反弹的速度快于生产。
全球市场正在经历一个经典但波动的价格周期，2020年由冠状病毒疫情和封锁造成的前所未有的低迷，为2021~2022年的繁荣创造了条件。
根据世界银行(World Bank)的数据显示，经通胀因素调整后，去年全球贸易量加权价格跌至1995年以来的最低年度水平。
结果是整个天然气行业的钻探和资本投资急剧减少，导致全球产量空前下降，尽管全球经济活动回升，但产量仍然低迷。
作为不可避免的连锁反应，月度价格现已攀升至2014年年中以来的实际最高水平，因为贸易商预计到年底将没有足够的产量来满足消费者的所有需求。
到8月，实际价格已从2020年6月的第1个百分点上升至1980年以来所有月份的第68个百分点，本月迄今为止进一步大幅上涨。
价格上涨向该行业发出了一个强烈的信号，即需要提高产量，并提供现金流来为产量的大幅增加提供资金，这将支持2022年和2023年的强劲增长。
在疫情之前，2009-2019年期间，全球产量和消费均以每年约3%的复合速度增长(《世界能源统计回顾》，BP, 2021年)。
但疫情导致去年消费下降了2.1%(自2008年金融危机以来的最大降幅)，而产量降幅更大，为3.1%(至少是自上世纪70年代以来的最大降幅)。
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
原文如下：
Global gas prices soar as industry struggles to meet resurgent demand
Global gas prices have climbed to their highest level for seven years in real terms, as traders anticipate a shortage this winter, with consumption rebounding more quickly than production from the pandemic slump last year.
The global market is experiencing a classic but violent price cycle, with an unprecedented downturn in 2020, caused by the coronavirus epidemic and lockdowns, creating the conditions for a boom in 2021/22.
Last year, volume-weighted global prices fell to their lowest annual level since 1995, after adjusting for inflation, according to the World Bank.
The result was a sharp cutback in drilling and capital investment across the industry, leading to an unprecedented decline in worldwide output, which has remained depressed even as global economic activity has surged back.
In an inevitable reaction, monthly prices have now climbed to their highest in real terms since mid-2014, as traders anticipate there will not be enough production to meet all the demand from consumers by the end of the year.
By August, real prices had risen to the 68th percentile for all months since 1980, up from the 1st percentile in June 2020, with further sharp increases so far this month .
Rising prices are sending a strong signal to the industry of the need to boost production and are providing the cash flow to finance a major increase in output, which should support strong growth in 2022 and 2023.
PRICE SHOCK
Before the pandemic, both global production and consumption had increased at a compound rate of roughly 3% per year between 2009 to 2019 ("Statistical review of world energy", BP, 2021).
But the pandemic caused consumption to drop by 2.1% last year (the largest decline since the financial crisis in 2009), while production plunged even more sharply by 3.1% (the largest decline since at least the 1970s).
