据10月8日Gas processing news报道，在《国际能源展望2021》(IEO2021)参考案例中，EIA认为，如果政策或技术没有重大变化，全球能源消费将在未来30年增加近50%。尽管到2050年，石油和其他液体燃料仍将是世界上最大的能源，但包括太阳能和风能在内的可再生能源将增长到几乎相同的水平。
不断下降的技术成本和鼓励可再生能源的政府政策将导致可再生发电的增长，以满足不断增长的电力需求。因此，可再生能源将成为经合组织和非经合组织国家增长最快的能源。EIA预计，经合发组织国家的煤炭和核能使用量将会减少，尽管这种减少将被非经合发组织国家煤炭和核能使用量的增加所抵消。
EIA预计，到2023年，全球石油和其他液体的使用量将完全恢复到疫情爆发前(2019年)的水平，这完全是受非经合组织能源消费增长的推动。EIA预计，在未来30年的任何时候，经合组织的液体燃料使用都不会恢复到疫情前的水平，部分原因是燃料效率的提高。
EIA预计，在不断扩大的化工行业中，工业部门将越来越多地使用石油液体作为原料。在经合发组织国家，工业部门的液体燃料消费的增长速度将是运输部门液体燃料消费的三倍。
住宅终端使用的实际用电量将增长最多。预计到2050年，在非经合组织国家，电力将占到家庭能源消耗的一半以上，而2020年这一比例为33%。在非经济合作与发展组织的商业建筑中，EIA预计到2050年电力将占能源消耗的更大份额，达到64%。
在全球范围内，EIA的项目增加了天然气的消费量，直到2050年。在我们的参考案例中，工业部门是到2050年全球天然气消费增长的主要贡献者，主要是非经合组织国家。在经合组织国家，能源效率的提高将在2050年前减少家庭使用天然气。在所有最终用途部门中，工业部门将使用最大份额的天然气和煤炭。非经合组织国家的工业煤炭使用量将增长最快，这些国家的钢铁生产等能源密集型行业的增长速度将超过经合组织国家。
王佳晶 摘译自 Gas processing news
原文如下：
EIA projects nearly 50% increase in world energy use by 2050
In the International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Reference case, the EIA projects that, absent significant changes in policy or technology, global energy consumption will increase nearly 50% over the next 30 years. Although petroleum and other liquid fuels will remain the world’s largest energy source in 2050, renewable energy sources, which include solar and wind, will grow to nearly the same level.
Falling technology costs and government policies that provide incentives for renewables will lead to the growth of renewable electricity generation to meet growing electricity demand. As a result, renewables will be the fastest-growing energy source for both OECD and non-OECD countries. The EIA projects that coal and nuclear use will decrease in OECD countries, although the decrease will be more than offset by increased coal and nuclear use in non-OECD countries.
The EIA projects that global use of petroleum and other liquids will return to pre-pandemic (2019) levels by 2023, driven entirely by growth in non-OECD energy consumption. The EIA does not project OECD liquid fuel use to return to pre-pandemic levels at any point in the next 30 years, in part because of increased fuel efficiency.
The EIA projects that the industrial sector will increasingly consume petroleum liquids as feedstock in the expanding chemicals industry. In OECD countries, liquid fuel consumption in the industrial sector will grow three times as fast as liquid fuel consumption in the transportation sector.
Delivered electricity consumption will grow the most in the residential end-use sector. We project that in non-OECD countries, electricity will account for more than half of the energy used in households by 2050, compared with 33% in 2020. In non-OECD commercial buildings, the EIA projects that electricity will make up an even larger share of energy consumption in 2050, at 64%.
Globally, the EIA projects increased consumption of natural gas through 2050. The industrial sector is the main contributor to the growth in global natural gas consumption through 2050 in our Reference case, largely in non-OECD countries. Across OECD countries, gains in energy efficiency will reduce household natural gas use by 2050. The industrial sector will use the largest share of both natural gas and coal among all end-use sectors. Industrial coal use will expand fastest in non-OECD countries, where energy-intensive industries such as iron and steel production are expanding more quickly than in OECD countries.