中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻网12月15日报道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)下调了对2023年的油价预测，称明年初市场将出现过剩，从而缓解冬季油价飙升的风险。
这家华尔街银行在周二的一份报告中，将其对2023年第一和第二季度布伦特原油价格的预测分别从每桶115美元和105美元下调至每桶90美元和95美元。
该银行表示，今年冬季油价飙升的风险较小。
高盛预计，本季度结束时，石油市场将出现160万桶/天的盈余，而季节性需求下降将使明年第一季度的盈余达到130万桶/天。
其预测，随着国际旅游业的复苏，2023年全球石油日需求将增长200万桶。
高盛表示，预计2023年布伦特原油均价为98美元/桶，WTI原油均价为92美元/桶，低于此前对布伦特原油均价110美元/桶和WTI原油均价105美元/桶的预测。
据高盛称，预计明年最后两个季度，布伦特原油价格将升至每桶100至105美元，仍低于此前预测的每桶110美元。预计2024年油价将上涨，布伦特原油均价为每桶105美元，WTI原油均价为每桶99美元。
本季度迄今，布伦特原油价格已下跌近6%。油价已经从3月份每桶139美元的峰值下跌了40%以上。
高盛周三在另一份研究报告中表示，尽管近期价格下跌，但大宗商品仍有可能在2022年成为业绩最好的资产类别。
郝芬 译自 油气新闻网
原文如下:
Goldman sees oil market surplus in early 2023
Goldman Sachs slashed its oil price forecasts for 2023, saying it sees a market surplus early next year easing risks of winter price spikes.
The Wall Street bank in a note dated Tuesday cut its Brent oil forecasts for the first and second quarter of 2023 to $90 and $95 a barrel from $115 and $105 per barrel, respectively.
Goldman expects the oil market to end the current quarter with a surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), while seasonally lower demand would leave the first quarter next year with a surplus of 1.3 million bpd.
It forecasts global demand will grow by 2 million bpd in 2023, as international travel recovers.
For 2023, Goldman said it sees Brent oil averaging $98 per barrel and WTI at $92 a barrel, down from its earlier forecasts of $110 for Brent and $105 a barrel for WTI.
For the final two quarters of next year, Goldman said it expects Brent to rise to $100-$105 a barrel, still lower than its previous forecasts of $110 per barrel.
It said it expects prices to rise in 2024, with Brent averaging $105 per barrel and WTI $99 a barrel.
So far this quarter, Brent crude prices are down nearly 6%. They have fallen more than 40% from a March peak of $139 a barrel.
"Despite the recent price declines, commodities will still likely finish the year as the best performing asset class in 2022," Goldman said in a separate research note on Wednesday.