中国石化新闻网讯 据阿拉伯贸易网2022年12月16日报道，惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)表示，在大多数情况下，中东和北非地区石油出口主权国家的信贷指标将受到又一年财政和外部盈余的支持，这是基于惠誉评级的假设，即布伦特原油价格平均每桶85美元以及生产水平普遍稳定。
惠誉评级表示，由于石油产量企稳，2023年中东和北非地区石油出口国的增长将会弱得多。此前，欧佩克+国家在2022年的大部分时间里取消了疫情期间的减产，并在11月进行了新的小得多的减产，从而油价出现大幅反弹。
惠誉评级表示，如果石油市场决定性地转向过剩，2023年全球经济增长放缓可能促使欧佩克+进一步减产，但对潜在供应紧张的担忧仍然存在，包括供应紧张。
海湾合作委员会(GCC)非石油增长将保持一定势头，但由于油价、利率上升和全球增长疲软的溢出效应，非石油增长将从平均4.5%放缓至3%；2022年疫情开始后取得的一些成果也将在2023年消失。
在中东和北非地区非石油经济体，在全球利率上升的背景下，许多国家的信贷基本面面临高债务负担和外部融资条件紧张的风险；惠誉评级表示，考虑到通胀趋势，国内利率也将保持在高位。
受全球贸易低迷、利率上升、财政空间有限以及包括旅游业在内的特定行业面临风险的影响，大多数情况下，增长可能会更弱。惠誉评级表示，在一些国家，多边和双边金融支持以及经济和财政改革取得的一些进展是一种重要的缓解措施。
惠誉评级表示，它在2022年增加了两个正面展望，分别是阿联酋哈伊马角酋长国和沙特阿拉伯。在惠誉评级的15个中东和北非国家中，只有埃及为负面展望，而黎巴嫩和突尼斯没有展望，因为惠誉评级通常不会对评级为“CCC+”或以下的主权国家给予展望。黎巴嫩仍处于违约状态。突尼斯的评级为“CCC+”，去年12月从“CCC”升级。
李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网
原文如下：
MENA oil exporters set for fiscal surplus in 2023: report
Credit metrics in oil-exporting sovereigns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will be supported by another year of fiscal and external surpluses in most cases, based>MENA oil exporters’ growth will be much weaker in 2023 as oil output stabilises, following a sharp rebound in 2022 when Opec+ countries unwound Covid-19 pandemic-era cuts for much of the year, before a new much smaller cut in November, it said.
Slower global growth in 2023 could prompt further Opec+ cuts if the oil market shifts decisively into surplus, but concerns persist about potentially tight supply, Fitch Ratings said.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) non-oil growth will retain some momentum but will slow, from 4.5%>In MENA non-oil economies, credit fundamentals in many countries face risks from high debt burdens and tight external financing conditions amid higher global interest rates; domestic interest rates will also remain high given inflation trends, it said.
Growth is likely to be weaker in most cases, affected by lacklustre global trade, higher interest rates, limited fiscal space and risks to particular sectors, including tourism. Multilateral and bilateral financial support is an important mitigant in some countries, alongside some progress with economic and fiscal reforms, the agency said.
Fitch Ratings said it added two Positive Outlooks in 2022, for Ras Al Khaimah and Saudi Arabia. Of the 15 MENA sovereigns that Fitch rates, only Egypt is on Negative Outlook, while Lebanon and Tunisia do not have outlooks as Fitch typically does not assign outlooks to sovereigns with a rating of 'CCC+' or below. Lebanon remains in default. Tunisia is rated ‘CCC+’, upgraded in December from ‘CCC’.
