中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带网站1月11日报道，美国能源信息署（EIA）在其最新的短期能源展望（STEO）中将2023年布伦特原油现货均价预测下调10%。
EIA目前预计，今年原油均价为每桶83美元，而此前的STEO预测为每桶92美元。展望2024年，EIA最新的STEO预计布伦特原油现货均价为每桶77.57美元。最新的STEO强调，2022年布伦特现货均价为每桶100.94美元，而2021年每桶70.89美元。
EIA在其1月份的STEO中表示，我们预测2023年布伦特原油均价为每桶83美元，较2022年下降18%，并在2024年继续下跌至78美元，因为全球石油库存增加，给原油价格带来下行压力。
根据EIA的最新预测，受非欧佩克产量大幅增长的驱动，全球液体燃料产量将从2022年的每天1亿桶上升到2024年的日均1.028亿桶。
一月份的STEO指出， 然而，石油供应的不确定性将持续存在，特别是在2023年初。
从全球液体燃料的消费量来看，EIA在其最新的STEO中透露，预计将从2022年的日均9940万桶增加到2024年的1.022亿桶。
EIA在1月份的STEO中警告称，然而，对全球经济状况的持续担忧，增加了我们需求预测结果的不确定性。
在本周发给钻机地带网站的另一份报告中，Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR)透露，该公司对2023年的油价“看涨”。
EIR在一份公司声明中表示，石油供应紧张意味着EIR看好2023年的油价，尽管伴随着不连贯的新冠疫情复苏、地缘政治危机和G7货币政策的历史性紧缩阶段的相当大的经济阻力。
该公司补充道，截至12月，EIR预测布伦特原油第一季度为每桶93美元，第四季度将升至每桶108美元。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶80.50美元。布伦特原油价格从去年12月30日的每桶85.91美元跌至今年1月4日的每桶77.84美元，但此后一直处于上升趋势。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下:
EIA Slashes 2023 Brent Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has cut its 2023 Brent spot average price forecast by 10 percent in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).
The EIA now sees the commodity averaging $83 per barrel this year, compared with $92 per barrel in its previous STEO. Looking ahead to 2024, the EIA’s latest STEO sees the Brent spot price averaging $77.57 per barrel. Brent spot prices averaged $100.94 per barrel in 2022 and $70.89 per barrel in 2021, the latest STEO highlighted.
“We forecast that the Brent crude oil price will average $83 per barrel in 2023, down 18 percent from 2022, and continue to fall to $78 percent in 2024 as global oil inventories build, putting downward pressure>According to the EIA’s latest forecast, global production of liquid fuels will rise from 100 million barrels per day in 2022 to reach an average of 102.8 million barrels per day in 2024, “driven by large growth in non-OPEC production”.
“However, uncertainty over oil supply will persist, particularly in early 2023,” the January STEO noted.
Looking at the global consumption of liquid fuels, the EIA revealed in its latest STEO that it expects an increase from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 102.2 million barrels per day in 2024.
“ongoing concerns about global economic conditions ， however, increase the uncertainty of the outcomes of our demand forecasts,” the EIA warned in the January STEO.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone this week, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) revealed that it was “bullish”>“Oil supply tightness means EIR is bullish>“As of December, EIR forecasts Brent at $93 per barrel in 1Q23, rising to $108 in 4Q23,” the company added.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $80.50 per barrel. The Brent price dropped from a close of $85.91 per barrel on December 30 to a close of $77.84 per barrel on January 4 but has since been on an upward trajectory.