中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网1月29日消息称，雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）预计，全球石油和天然气承包商市场将在2025年达到1万亿美元的峰值，并在此后几年保持在高水平。得益于天然气液化、运输和再气化行业中游部分的强劲增长，在2022年—2028年期间，石油和天然气的总体支出平均每年将保持在9200亿美元以上。
尽管2025年后油气行业可能会出现另一个低迷周期，但油田服务供应商应该能够通过拓展更广泛能源市场的其他部分来平衡低迷，这样做可以扩大承包商的整体目标市场。对于供应商来说，关键是继续在地热能、氢气、海上风能以及碳捕获、利用和存储领域寻找突出机会。
加上油田服务，到2025年，这种向其他能源领域的扩张将为供应商提供1万亿美元的市场，这一市场可能会持续几年。细分石油和天然气供应商的不同服务领域可以发现，所有服务领域的名义价值都将增长，主要来自设备和材料供应商以及提供运营和维护服务的供应商。
尽管我们预计未来7年将为能源服务提供一个强劲市场，但企业仍需改善自身的经济状况，以迎接这一盛宴。幸运的是，由于钻机、船舶、工厂和供应链中的其他单元受到自然磨损的影响，供应商小心翼翼地避免过度投资于更多的产能，整体利用率正在迅速提高。在过去的12个月里，海上钻井平台、陆地钻井平台、压裂设备、支撑剂、OCTG、船舶和海底基础设施的价格都上涨到了10年来从未见过的水平。
“所有迹象都表明，2022年是能源服务行业另一个超级周期的开始。”Rystad Energy合伙人兼能源服务研究主管Audun Martinsen说。
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
Rystad: Energy Services To Grow To $1 Trillion By 2025
Rystad Energy expects the global market for oil and gas contractors to rise to a peak of $1 trillion in 2025 and remain at high levels for several years thereafter. Helped by strong growth in the midstream part of the industry to liquefy, transport, and re-gasify natural gas, overall oil and gas spending will stay above $920 billion annually>Despite the risk that another downturn cycle in oil and gas may occur after 2025, oilfield service suppliers should be able to balance out the downturn by branching out into other parts of the wider energy market – and in so doing, expanding the overall target market for contractors. The key for suppliers is to continue chasing obvious opportunities within geothermal energy, hydrogen, offshore wind, and carbon capture, utilization and storage.
Together with oilfield services, this expansion into other energy areas could provide a $1 trillion market for suppliers by 2025, which could be sustained for several years after that. Breaking down the various service segments among the oil and gas suppliers reveals that all segments will grow in nominal terms, led by suppliers targeting equipment and materials and those providing operations and maintenance services.
While we expect the next seven years to provide a strong market for energy services, companies still have to improve their economics to make it a feast. Luckily, overall utilization is improving rapidly as suppliers are careful not to overinvest in more capacity as rigs, vessels, plants, and other units in the supply chain are affected by natural wear and tear. The result is better pricing for suppliers – the past 12 months have driven up prices for offshore rigs, land rigs, frac fleets, proppant, OCTG, vessels, and subsea infrastructure to levels not seen in a decade.
“Global oil and gas suppliers look set to echo the biblical story about the Egyptian pharaoh’s dream of seven years of feast and seven years of famine – only in the opposite order. All signs point towards 2022 being the start of another super cycle for the energy services sector”, says Audun Martinsen, partner and head of energy service research at Rystad Energy.