中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带2月13日报道，根据美国能源信息署（EIA）最新的短期能源展望（STEO），预计2023年全球液体燃料日消耗量将增加110万桶，2024年将增加180万桶。
据2月份的STEO预计，今年全球总消费量将达到1.0047亿桶/天，2024年将达到1.0226亿桶/天。据STEO显示，预计今年第一季度需求将达到9965万桶/天，第二季度为1.0005亿桶/天，第三季度为1.0099亿桶/天，第四季度为1.0119亿桶/天。
根据STEO的数据显示，2024年第一季度的消费量将达到1.0156亿桶/天，第二季度为1.0177亿桶/天，第三和第四季度为1.0285亿桶/天。该数据显示，2022年的总需求为9936万桶/天。
2月份的STEO指出，预计全球液体燃料消费量将从2022年的日均9940万桶增加到2024年的1.023亿桶，这主要是由其他非经合组织国家的增长推动的。然而，我们的需求预测仍存在很大的不确定性，这取决于全球经济状况不断变化的可能结果。
STEO继续道，我们预计经合组织的石油需求在预测期内将基本持平，因为通货膨胀的经济压力继续限制GDP和石油需求的增长，同时经合组织经济体的石油强度下降。
在1月份发布的STEO中，EIA预计2023年的需求将为1.0048亿桶/天，2024年为1.022亿桶/天。
据该STEO显示，预计今年第一季度需求量将达到1.0056亿桶/天，第二季度将达到1.0034亿桶/天，第三季度将达到1.0053亿桶/天，第四季度将达到1.0047亿桶/天。在1月份的STEO中，预计2024年第一季度的消费量将达到1.0218亿桶/天，第二季度为10193万桶/天，第三季度为1.0241亿桶/天和第四季度为1.0229亿桶/天。
根据国际能源署（IEA）今年1月发布的最新石油市场报告显示，2023年，全球石油需求将增加190万桶/天。
IEA在报告中表示，今年石油需求可能会增加190万桶/天，达到1.017亿桶/天，为历史最高水平，随着产能大国供应在制裁的全面影响下放缓，供需平衡将变得更加紧张。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Demand Projected to Hit More Than 102MM Barrels Per Day in 2024
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, according to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).
Total world consumption will hit 100.47 million barrels per day this year and 102.26 million barrels per day in 2024, the February STEO projected. The STEO showed that demand is expected to hit 99.65 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 100.05 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 100.99 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.19 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Consumption will come in at 101.56 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 101.77 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024, and 102.85 million barrels per day in both the third and fourth quarters of next year, according to the STEO, which showed that total demand was 99.36 million barrels per day in 2022.
“Global liquids fuel consumption in the forecast increases from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 102.3 million barrels per day in 2024, driven primarily by growth in other non-OECD countries,” the February STEO noted.
“However, significant uncertainty around our demand forecast remains based>“We expect OECD oil demand to remain largely flat over the forecast period, as inflationary economic pressures continue to limit GDP and oil demand growth and as the oil intensity of OECD economies declines,” the STEO continued.
January STEO, IEA
In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA anticipated that demand would be 100.48 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.20 million barrels per day in 2024.
That STEO showed that demand was expected to hit 100.56 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 100.34 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 100.53 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 100.47 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In the January STEO, consumption was anticipated to hit 102.18 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 101.93 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024, 102.41 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2024, and 102.29 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest oil market report, which was released in January, global oil demand is set to rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2023.
“This year could see oil demand rise by 1.9 million barrels per day to reach 101.7 million barrels per day, the highest ever, tightening the balances as the bigger producer’s supply slows under the full impact of sanctions,” the IEA stated in the report.