中国石化新闻网讯 据OE网站2月22日报道，根据DNV最近的一项调查显示，浮式海上风电行业正处于发展的早期阶段，但有望快速增长，在未来十年多一点的时间内实现完全商业化。
然而，该行业面临着挑战，包括缺乏港口基础设施和锚处理器，成本高，以及大量不同的概念，使行业标准化变得困难。
DNV对全球244家开发商、投资者、制造商、顾问和运营商进行了调查，结果发现60%的受访者认为，到2035年，海上浮动风电将实现全面商业化，25%的人认为最早将在2030年实现商业化。
DNV表示，实现这些目标显得雄心勃勃，60%在风能领域拥有创收业务的公司预计在2023年增加对浮动海上风电的投资。
DNV能源系统首席执行官Ditlev Engel表示，DNV预测，到2050年，所有海上风电装机容量的15%将来自浮式涡轮机。然而，必须克服障碍。
根据DNV的说法，实现全面商业化在一定程度上取决于关键市场的投资潜力。
21%的受访者将市场规模作为选择投资市场的首要标准，其次是监管和政治稳定性(16%)，以及电网适用性(12%)。
DNV表示，为了扩大海上浮动风力发电的规模，至关重要的是其均衡能源成本(LCOE)尽可能多地、尽可能快地下降。DNV的《能源转型展望》预测，到2050年，浮动海上风电的成本将下降近80%。
标准化、减少概念数量、更大的涡轮机
DNV称，21%的受访者认为标准化(通过概念数量减少或更好概念的出现)将是降低LCOE的最大因素。接下来是更大的涡轮机和工业化，紧随其后的是更大型的风电场（考虑到规模经济和更大的装机容量）。标准化也被业界认为是降低风险的关键因素。
港口基础设施和锚处理器的缺少
此外，DNV表示，海上风电行业此刻正在与飙高的商品价格和产能限制抗争，供应链挑战也开始显现。浮式风电专业人士提到的最大风险是缺乏港口基础设施。
第二大风险是与容量有关的安装船的可用性。
DNV表示，虽然浮式风电通常不依赖于底部固定海上风电中使用的先进和定制型船舶，但系泊和锚固安装船舶的绝对数量和所需的能力可能对该行业构成挑战，因为未来10年需要安装更多的系泊和锚固，这是石油和天然气行业从未见过的。
未来30年将有2万台涡轮机
DNV的海上风电部门主管Magnus Ebbesen解释道，商业吸引力将取决于成本的降低和各个市场的不同价格。成本的降低不会通过等待来实现，这使得到2030年安装第一代大型浮动风电场，实现浮动风电的光明前景至关重要。
据DNV称，未来30年全球将安装约300吉瓦的海上浮式风电，需要约2万台涡轮机，每台涡轮机安装在重量超过5000吨的漂浮结构上，并使用许多系泊缆进行固定，如果将它们端到端捆绑在一起，它们将环绕地球两圈。
郝芬 译自 OE
原文如下：
Floating Offshore Wind Industry Poised for Full Commercialization by 2035 - Survey
The floating offshore wind industry is in its early stages of development but is poised for rapid growth, with full commercialization possible in a little over a decade, according to a recent DNV survey.
However, the industry faces challenges, including a lack of port infrastructure and anchor handlers, high cost, as well as an abundance of different concepts that make standardization difficult.
According to DNV's research, which surveyed 244 developers, investors, manufacturers, advisors, and operators around the world, found that 60% of respondents think floating offshore wind will reach full commercialization by 2035, with 25% believing it will be as early as 2030.
"Reaching these targets is ambitious, but early signs are promising, with 60% of organizations with revenue-producing businesses in wind expecting to increase investment in floating offshore wind in 2023," DNV said.
Ditlev Engel, CEO, Energy Systems at DNV said: "DNV predicts that by 2050, 15% of all offshore wind installed capacity will come from floating turbines. However, barriers must be overcome."
Per DNV, reaching full commercialization will depend, in part,>Market size was cited by 21% of respondents as the first criteria for choosing a market to invest in, followed by regulatory and political stability (16%), and power grid suitability (12%).
"For floating offshore wind to scale-up, it is paramount that its levelized cost of energy (LCOE) drops as much and as quickly as possible. DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook forecasts that levelized costs for floating offshore wind will fall by almost 80% by 2050," DNV said.
Standardization, Reduction of Concept Numbers, Bigger Turbines
DNV said that 21% of survey respondents believed that standardization - either through a reduction in the number of concepts or the emergence of a preferable concept will be the biggest factor for LCOE reduction.
Bigger turbines and industrialization come next, closely followed by larger wind farms (allowing for economies of scale and greater installed capacity). Standardization was also cited by the industry as a crucial factor to mitigate risk, DNV said.
Lack of Port Infrastrucure and Anchor Handlers
Furthermore, DNV said that supply-chain challenges also come into play, as the offshore wind sector is battling high commodity prices and capacity limitations. The top risk cited by floating wind professionals was a lack of port infrastructure.
The second biggest risk cited was installation vessel availability, tied with capacity.
"While floating wind is generally not reliant>20,000 turbines in Next 30 Years
“Commercial attractiveness will rely>According to DNV, about 300 GW of floating offshore wind will be installed globally in the next 30 years, requiring around 20,000 turbines, each mounted on top of floating structures weighing more than 5,000 tonnes and secured with so many mooring lines that if they were tied end-to-end, they would wrap around the world twice.