中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2023年3月7日报道，在最近发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司预计，今年即月纽约商交所（NYMEX RBOB）汽油基准价格平均为每加仑2.70美元。
惠誉解决方案在2月16日向美国钻井网站发送的另一份报告中也做出了同样的预测，该报告披露了惠誉解决方案对到2026年的NYMEX RBOB汽油价格预测。
惠誉解决方案在其最新报告中指出：“高于平均水平的裂解价差将使2023年汽油价格保持高位，但低于2022年的水平。”
惠誉解决方案补充说：“从基本面来看，汽油市场在2023年仍将略微供应不足，这将使价格保持高位。如果生产或需求与我们的预期相反，相对较低的汽油库存将为价格提供一个底部，防止价格大幅下跌。”
惠誉解决方案继续说：“需求前景黯淡，尤其是在发达市场，将导致汽油价格从去年水平回落。汽油价格将跟随油价走势，预计今年油价也将从2022年的高点下降，但仍高于历史水平。”
惠誉解决方案继续指出：“总体而言，原油和燃料价格在2023年的风险溢价都可能会变小，因为更广泛的市场已经消化了地缘政治冲突和实施制裁的影响。”
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Reiterates 2023 Gasoline Price Forecast
In a new report sent to Rigzone recently, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research projected that the front month NYMEX RBOB gasoline benchmark would average $2.70 per gallon this year.
The same forecast was made in a separate Fitch Solutions report sent to Rigzone>“Above-average crack spreads will see 2023 gasoline prices remain elevated but below 2022 levels,” Fitch Solutions noted in its latest report.
“Looking at the fundamentals, the gasoline market is set to remain slightly undersupplied in 2023 which will keep prices elevated. Relatively low gasoline stockpiles will put a price floor preventing a sharp downturn in prices should production or demand run counter to our expectations,” the company added.
“Muted outlook for demand, especially among the developed markets will see prices retreating from last year levels. Gasoline prices are set to follow the oil price trajectory, which is also expected to decline from 2022 highs but remain above historical levels,” the company continued.
“Overall, both crude oil and fuel prices will likely see smaller risk premia in 2023 as the broader market has already priced in the effects of the war and imposed sanctions,” Fitch Solutions went on to note.
