到本十年中期，液化天然气出口终端可能面临可再生能源和核电的竞争
这可能会导致天然气价格不稳定，并使一些天然气项目岌岌可危
由于价格高企和波动，全球储备购买量下降，同时也导致2021年批准天然气项目的数量大幅增长
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年3月14日报道，未来几年，一批新的液化天然气出口终端将投入使用，这可能对全球天然气价格产生重大影响。
分析人士说，这些项目可能面临来自更便宜的可再生能源和核电复兴的激烈竞争，这可能会造成市场不稳定，并使一些项目的基础不稳固。
到2030年前，全球液化天然气供应量将比2021年增加67%，液化天然气年供应量将达到6.36亿吨，足以完全淹没全球液化天然气市场。
切尼尔能源公司首席执行官杰克·富斯科警告说：“你现在看到的是世界各地正在建设总价值1万亿美元的天然气基础设施。”他补充说，“这是我们正在看到的天然气市场的长期转变。”
根据来自FactSet公司分析公布的数据，卡塔尔将在2027年前将其液化天然气年产量再增加4900万吨，而美国液化天然气设施的年产能预计将在2027年底前增加1.25亿吨(164亿立方英尺/天)。
去年，由于欧洲需求上升，液化天然气价格飙升，但由于客户抵制高成本并寻求其他能源，液化天然气价格迅速下降。
这一趋势可能会持续下去。根据世界经济论坛公布的数据，风能和太阳能的市场份额已从2020年的1%跃升至2021年的10%以上。
核能的使用也将在日本和法国等国家恢复活力。就日本而言，其目标是到2030年前核能发电占比达到20%(去年为7%)，而法国计划在2035年前新建6座新的核电站。
鉴于这些新进展，2027年之后液化天然气需求的不确定性日益显现，届时额外的液化天然气供应可能导致价格下跌。
标普全球的迈克尔·斯托帕德日前在一次关于全球天然气战略的讨论中指出，“目前行业最大的未知因素是高需求价格所造成的中期损害”。
能源经济与金融分析研究所也表达了类似的观点，该研究所在2月份曾表示，由于液化天然气的成本上升和波动性加大，它已经获得了“昂贵且不可靠的燃料”的声誉，这可能会危及在亚洲建更多进口终端的计划。众所周知，亚洲是全球液化天然气需求最高的地区。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
LNG Market Could Become Too Saturated By 2027
· LNG export terminals could face competition from renewables and nuclear power in the mid-decade
· This could create instability in gas prices and put some projects>· Reserve purchases are down worldwide due to high prices and volatility, while also leading to major growth in approval numbers for 2021.
A wave of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals is set to come>The projects could face stiff competition from cheaper renewable energy and a resurgence of nuclear power, potentially creating instability in the market and putting some projects>By 2030, LNG supplies will increase by 67%, or 636 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), compared to 2021 levels ? enough to completely flood the global market.
Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco warned, “What you have today is a trillion dollars worth of natural gas infrastructure being built around the world,” adding, “This is a long-term shift we are seeing with natural gas.”
Qatar is set to expand its LNG production by an additional 49 mtpa by 2027, while U.S. facilities are expected to add 125 mtpa (16.4 billion cubic feet per day) of capacity by late 2027, according to data from BTU Analytics, a FactSet company.
LNG prices surged last year as demand rose in Europe but quickly dropped off as customers pushed back against high costs and sought other energy sources.
This trend could continue. Wind and solar power market share has jumped to more than 10% in 2021 from 1% just the year before, according to the World Economic Forum.
Nuclear energy use is also set for revitalization in areas like Japan and France. Japan, for its part, aims to get up to 20% of its electricity from nuclear by 2030 (up from 7% last year), while France plans six new reactors before 2035.
Given these new developments, uncertainty looms around LNG demand after about 2027, when extra supplies could cause prices to fall.
S&P Global's Michael Stoppard noted during a discussion about global gas strategy, “The industry’s biggest unknown right now concerns the medium-term damage done by high prices>The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis shared similar sentiments when they said last month that due to elevated costs and volatility associated with LNG it had garnered a “costly and unreliable fuel” reputation which might jeopardize plans for further import terminals in Asia?the region with the highest forecasted LNG needs.