据路透社5月22日报道，由于对当前国际贸易紧张局势的担忧以及中东紧张局势的升级，国际能源署（IEA）下调了2018年和2019年全球石油需求增长预期。
国际能源署表示，2018年的石油需求增长预期已下调7万桶/日至120万桶/日，而2019年的需求增长预期则下调9万桶/日至130万桶/日。
报告称，“这些变化反映了埃及、印度、印度尼西亚和尼日利亚等大型消费国2018年的数据低于预期”，而在今年早些时候的数据显示，巴西、日本的需求也低于国际能源署的预期估计。
报告指出，经合发展组织（经济合作与发展组织）国家与非经合组织国家之间存在着重大分歧。以中国、印度和俄罗斯为首的非经合组织国家的日需求量实际上同比增长93万桶。
报告还显示，以阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦和加拿为首的石油生产国4月份供应量下降了30万桶/日。非欧佩克国家石油供应量预计将增长190万桶/日，而去年为280万桶/日。
洪伟立 摘译自 路透社
原文如下：
IEA cuts global Oil demand outlook
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its oil demand growth estimates for both 2018 and 2019 amid global worries over the U.S.-China trade war and increased tensions in the Middle East.
Last year’s oil demand growth estimate has been revised downward by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.2 million bpd, while the forecast for this year is cut by 90,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd, the IEA said.
“The changes reflect lower-than-expected 2018 data in large consuming nations such as Egypt, India, Indonesia and Nigeria,” the report said, adding that early data for this year showed demand in Brazil and Japan as below the agency’s estimates.
The report noted a key divergence between OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries and non-OECD countries. Demand in non-OECD countries, led by India and Russia, actually grew by 930,000 bpd year-on-year.
The report also revealed a global supply drop in April of 300,000 bpd, led by Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Canada. Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow 1.9 million bpd versus 2.8 million bpd last year.
