据ICIS-MRC网站12月22日莫斯科报道，据烃加工网表示，由于航空货运需求的反弹，全球航空燃料市场正在复苏，逐渐恢复客运量，并希望新冠疫苗能在2021年提振更多的国际航班。
新冠疫情使今年的航空旅行实际上停止了，据分析人士称，全球对航空燃料的需求回到疫情前的水平可能需要数年时间。但由于寄希望于对2021年需求增加，12月所有主要贸易中心的燃料精炼利润飙升至数月高位，其中美国和欧洲的利润率受到航空货运量回升的支撑，亚洲利润率也受到国内旅行反弹和加热消费的支撑。
自9月中旬以来，亚洲（全球最大的燃料市场）的航空燃料精炼利润飙升了580％，出口价格飙升了45％，达到自3月以来的最高水平。 由于一些国家放宽了对新冠疫情的管制，国内航空旅行有所增加。
咨询公司伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）驻新加坡的研究助理Qiaoling Chen表示:“我们预计2021年第一季度末将提供疫苗，一些旅行限制将继续实施。”他预计明年第一季度亚洲航空燃油需求将达到140万桶/天。该公司预计，今年第四季度该地区的航空燃料需求将达到130万桶/天，较第二季度增加46万桶/天，但较2019年同期减少41%。
根据Refinitiv的数据显示，在美国，将原油提炼成馏分油(包括航空燃料)的利润自9月中旬以来增加了约一倍，至每桶逾13美元，但仍比去年同期水平低约10美元。据挪威雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）高级分析师Artyom Tchen表示，美国航空燃料需求目前约为134万桶/天，较1月份新冠疫情前水平下降了30%。国际航班占全球航空燃料需求的60%以上。我们将看到需求复苏的前景，但这需要一段时间，尤其取决于来自美国的国际运输量复苏的速度。尽管全球航空客运已从5月份的暴跌中复苏，但11月份定期航班数量仍较上年同期水平低45%左右。
然而，货运业务的复苏更为迅速，由于电子商务的蓬勃发展，十月份的货运量仅比去年同期下降了6％。 随着航空公司准备在大规模疫苗推出中发挥关键作用，预计全球航空货运需求将进一步增长。
郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC
原文如下：
Jet fuel prices take flight as vaccine roll-outs spur hopes of more air travel
Global jet fuel markets are coming back to life, resuscitated by a rebound in air cargo demand, gradually recovering passenger traffic and hopes that COVID-19 vaccines will spur more international flights in 2021, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
The pandemic brought air travel to a virtual halt this year, and analysts say it may take years before global appetite for jet fuel returns to pre-pandemic levels. But refining profits for the fuel surged to multi-month highs in all key trading hubs in December Jet refining margins in Asia - the world’s top fuel market - have soared 580% and export prices by 45% since mid-September to their highest since March. Domestic air travel picked up as some countries eased coronavirus curbs.
"We expect vaccines will become available by (the) end of Q1 2021 and some travel restrictions will remain in place," said Qiaoling Chen, research associate at consultancy Wood Mackenzie in Singapore, forecasting Asian jet fuel demand at 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of next year. The consultancy expects appetite for jet fuel in the region to hit 1.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2020, up by 460,000 bpd from Q2, but still 41% below the same period in 2019.
In the United States, margins to refine crude into distillates, which includes jet fuel, have about doubled since mid-September to more than USD13 a barrel, but are still about $10 per barrel below year-ago levels, according to Refinitiv data. Artyom Tchen, senior analyst at Rystad Energy in Norway, said U.S. jet fuel demand is currently around 1.34 million bpd, 30% off pre-coronavirus levels in January. International flights account for over 60% of global appetite for jet fuel.
"We will see the demand recovery going forward, but it will take some time and is especially dependent Cargo traffic, however, has recovered far more briskly, and in October was only 6% below year-ago levels thanks to booming e-commerce. Global air cargo demand is expected to receive a further boost as airlines prepare to play a key role in mass vaccine roll-outs.