据能源世界网1月6日新德里报道，据穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)表示，由于全球经济复苏不平衡，市场继续重新平衡，2021年石油和天然气均价将保持在中期范围内——布伦特原油(Brent)价格为45美元/桶，亨利中心(Henry Hub)天然气价格约为2美元/百万英热单位。
穆迪在报告中表示，亚洲，美国和欧洲之间以及不同行业之间的增长轨迹截然不同，这将扩大按地区和燃料类型划分的需求不均衡复苏，并使石油和天然气价格波动不定。其补充道，包括中国和印度在内的亚洲经济体正在引领对工业和运输对石油需求的反弹，即使将新冠疫情的封锁再次导致美国和欧洲的需求曲折，也应使石油市场保持平衡。
该报告称，各国政府为缓解疫情的经济影响而采取的纾缓措施导致2020年的财政成本和债务负担增加，而对于2021年，向赞助商支付更高的款项，在他们正加大资本支出，以帮助加速疫情后的复苏时，将增加国家石油公司的压力。
对于印度国有石油和天然气公司(ONGC)来说，无论其运营业绩如何，2021年股东的支付可能仍将接近历史水平，因为印度政府的财政预算依赖ONGC的股息。
然而，由于政府正在鼓励公共部门公司保持或增加资本支出，作为振兴经济的手段，ONGC的资本支出将保持在较高水平。该报告称，在低收益的情况下，这些高股东薪酬和资本支出将迫使ONGC以一定的成本增加贷款。
此外，2020年疫情带来的经济压力将迫使整合后的石油公司继续努力限制资本投资，并在2021年保留现金。然而，由于高价格、低成本、对对最佳资产的关注以及边际效率的提高，生产商今年将有更多的产能来生产自由现金流。
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
原文如下：
2021 oil prices seen hovering around $45 per barrel in 2021: Moody's Investors Service
Oil and natural gas prices will "Sharply diverging growth trajectories between Asia and the US and Europe, and across different industries, will extend an uneven recovery in demand by geography and by fuel type, and will keep oil and gas prices volatile," Moody's said in a report today.
It added that Asian economies, including China and India, are leading the rebound in industrial and transportation demand for oil and should keep the oil market The report said relief measures by governments to soften the economic impact of the pandemic led to higher fiscal costs and debt burdens in 2020 and for 2021, higher payments to their sponsors would add to the National Oil Companies' stress at a time of elevated capital spending to help speed up post-pandemic recoveries.
For India's state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), shareholder payments in 2021 will likely remain close to historical levels regardless of its operating performance, since the Government of India relies However, Also, the economic strain of the 2020 pandemic will compel integrated oil companies to continue efforts to limit capital investments and preserve cash in 2021. However, producers will have more capacity this year to produce free cash flow, thanks to higher prices, low costs, a focus on best assets and marginal efficiency gains.