据8月24日OGJ报道，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的一项分析显示，最近几周，宏观经济形势的不确定性给石油和勘探生产公司带来了压力，但基本面仍保持强劲。
自6月底以来，随着全球新冠肺炎病例不断增多，市场对成品油需求担忧情绪日益加重，勘探开发和石油库存分别下跌约20%和15%。在宏观层面，美联储最近的会议纪要显示，各方逐渐达成共识，今年将开始缩减资产购买规模，降低了人们对能源项目的再扩张兴趣，而美元走强也拖累了油价。
摩根士丹利表示，“尽管波动性加剧可能会一直持续到市场对德尔塔病毒的担忧开始缓和，或着是全球病例数开始不断减少，但我们看到该行业的表现与能源市场基本面之间的错配越来越大，这在2021年下半年仍具有建设性。”
摩根斯坦利石油策略师Martijn Rats预计欧佩克+将继续支撑市场价格，“石油总库存继续下降，目前处于近5年低点，美国页岩油的资本纪律保持不变，将继续限制供应增长。因此，我们认为，最近的价格回调是增加选择性勘探开发敞口的一个有吸引力的切入点。”
2021年下半年的主要主题
尽管石油需求复苏和宏观前景出现了一些疲软点，但石油市场基本面仍然完好，GDP增长可能仍在轨道上，库存消耗稳定，2021年下半年预计将出现相当大的供不应求，欧佩克可能将控制油价至2022年。总而言之，这支持了当前石油策略师的观点，即在供应受限的环境下，布伦特原油价格将处于70美元/桶的中高水平，预计随着新冠肺炎病例的减少，需求将会复苏。
对于天然气而言，库存紧张和天气变暖，使电力消耗增加，促使2021剩余时间里Henry Hub的天然气价格达到3.9美元/百万英热左右，略高于目前预计的3.6美元/百万英热。低库存、对墨西哥的强劲出口、工业需求增长，以及由于低于正常水库水平而导致的美国西部水力发电减少，这些都应该会在2021年下半年对价格起到支撑作用。
保持资本纪律，用效率抵消成本通胀。在第二季度财报所报道的公司中没有一家公司增加了2021年的有机D&C预算(除了与收购相关的变化)，这表明尽管大宗商品价格上涨，但它们仍在继续保持支出纪律。与此同时，钢铁、劳动力和燃料成本的适度上涨在很大程度上被D&C效率的提高所抵消。预计这一趋势将持续下去，许多生产商强调，在今年年初，他们有能力锁定钻机等特定类别的支出。展望2022年，预计以美国为重点的新闻报道的资本效率将出现温和下降，但这还不足以破坏该行业的自由现金流。目前的估计显示，2022年的平均通胀率为5%，2023年也将达到类似水平。
过剩的现金流正越来越多地用于减少债务和股东回报。近几个月来，提高或加速现金回报一直是公司业绩超常的关键驱动因素。随着第二季度的盈利，勘探和生产延续了第一季度的趋势，支出持平，并将多余的现金流用于股东回报和债务偿还。值得注意的是，一些公司已经宣布增加基本股息和或可变/特别股息。
战略行动和并购的重点主要是通过出售非核心区域或补强收购的资产级并购。然而，从第二季度的业绩来看，出现了一些规模更大的企业并购交易。展望未来，随着企业优化其投资组合并加速去杠杆化，预计大宗商品价格将支持市场继续出售非核心资产。对于那些有意愿和有能力的产油国来说，公私合并仍然是一个提高规模和效率的机会。
王佳晶 摘译自 OGJ
原文如下：
Morgan Stanley: Oil & Gas fundamentals remain supportive despite pullback
Macro uncertainty has weighed align="justify"> Since the end of June, E&Ps and oil (stocks) have fallen by about 20% and 15%, respectively, as the market has become increasingly concerned about refined product demand amid resurging COVID-19 cases globally. align="justify"> “While heightened volatility is likely here to stay until Delta variant concerns start to moderate (or global case counts start to show positive rate of change), we see a growing mismatch between the sector's performance and underlying energy market fundamentals, which remain constructive in 2021 second half,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a report.
“Total oil inventories have continued to draw and now sit near 5-year lows, capital discipline is holding within US shale (limiting supply growth), and Morgan Stanley oil strategist Martijn Rats expects OPEC+ to remain supportive of market prices. As a result, we see the recent pullback as an attractive entry point to add selective E&P exposure.”
Key themes in second-half 2021
“While soft spots have emerged in the oil demand recovery and macro outlook, oil market fundamentals remain intact with GDP growth likely still align="justify"> “For natural gas, tight inventories, and warmer weather (increasing power burn) have driven Henry Hub for the balance of 2021 to around $3.90/MMbtu, slightly above our current estimate of $3.60/MMbtu. Low inventories, strong exports to Mexico, industrial demand growth, and lower hydropower generation in the Western US due to below normal reservoir levels should be supportive of prices in the back half of 2021.
“Capital discipline holding, efficiencies offsetting cost inflation. Through the second quarter earnings season, none of the companies in our coverage increased 2021 organic D&C budgets (beyond changes related to acquisitions), demonstrating continued spending discipline despite higher commodity prices. Meanwhile, moderate cost inflation across steel, labor, and fuel costs has been largely offset by increased D&C efficiencies. We expect this trend to continue, with many producers highlighting the ability to lock in spending align="justify"> “Excess cash flow is increasingly being directed towards debt reduction and shareholder returns. In recent months, boosting or accelerating cash returns has been a key driver of outperformance. With second quarter earnings, E&Ps continued the trend from first quarter results, holding spending flat and directing excess cash flow towards shareholder returns and debt repayment. Notably, several companies have announced increases to base dividends and or variable/special dividends.
“The focus of strategic action and M&A has largely been on asset-level M&A through sales of non-core acreage or bolt-on acquisitions. However, with second quarter results, we saw some larger corporate deals. Going forward, we expect commodity prices to support a market for continued non-core asset sales as companies optimize their portfolios and accelerate deleveraging. For those with the willingness and capacity, Public-Private consolidation remains an opportunity to increase scale and efficiencies," the report concluded.