据管道&天然气杂志网9月8日报道，美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration，EIA)预计，在飓风“艾达”(Ida)过后的几个月里，天然气价格将继续走高。
EIA在其9月份的短期能源展望(STEO)中预测，第四季度亨利枢纽中心（Henry Hub）现货价格将达到平均4.00美元/百万英热单位，较8月份的预测上涨16%。
EIA还将其对2022年美国天然气均价的预测修订为3.47美元/百万英热单位，较之前的预测增加了13%。
美国IEA代理署长Steve Nalley表示,由于出口增长、国内天然气消费强劲以及天然气产量相对平稳，美国已经经历了更高的天然气价格，而飓风Ida却在此时影响了天然气产量。风暴造成的产量损失，加上目前的市场状况，限制了我们增加天然气库存的能力，我们预计这将使价格在短期内高于我们之前的预期。
随着飓风“艾达”的临近，墨西哥湾地区90%以上的天然气和原油生产能力被关闭。该地区仍有大量的生产和炼油产能处于停产状态。EIA预计，生产和炼油活动将在9月份逐步恢复。
截至8月底，美国天然气价格为4.33美元/百万英热单位，月平均价格为4.07美元/百万英热单位，比2020年8月上涨77%。
同样在STEO:
8月布伦特原油价格平均为每桶71美元，较7月下降4美元，但较2020年8月上升0.26美元。EIA 预计， 2021 年第四季度布伦特原油均价为71美元， 2022年为66美元。
EIA预测，2021年和2022年，小型太阳能发电能力（主要来自住宅屋顶太阳能电池板）将增加11.5吉瓦以上。2020 年小规模太阳能发电量增加4.5吉瓦。
据EIA估计，美国能源相关的二氧化碳排放量在2020年减少了11 %，因为与减少经济活动和应对新冠疫情相关的能源消耗减少。预测2021年，随着经济活动的增加和能源使用的增加，与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量将比2020年增加约8%。EIA 预计， 2022年与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量将上升，但增速放缓至2%。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下:
EIA Expects Higher Natural Gas Prices Due to Production Reductions Following Hurricane Ida
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects that natural gas prices will remain higher in the coming months following Hurricane Ida.
In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecast fourth-quarter Henry Hub spot prices to average $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a 16% increase from its August forecast.
EIA also revised its 2022 forecast of the average U.S. natural gas price to $3.47/MMBtu, a 13% increase over its previous forecast.
“Hurricane Ida affected natural gas production at a time that the United States was already experiencing higher natural gas prices due to growth in exports, strong domestic natural gas consumption, and relatively flat natural gas production,” said EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley. “Lost production from the storm combined with these current market conditions has limited our ability to build up natural gas inventories, and we expect that will keep prices higher in the short term than we had previously thought.”
Hurricane Ida led producers to close more than 90% of natural gas and crude oil production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico region as the storm approached. Significant production and refining capacity remains offline in the region. EIA expects that production and refining activity will gradually be brought back align="justify"> U.S. natural gas prices ended August at $4.33/MMBtu, bringing the monthly average to $4.07/MMBtu, a 77% increase over August 2020.
Also in the STEO:
Brent crude oil prices averaged $71 per barrel in August, down $4 per barrel from July, but up $26 per barrel over August 2020. EIA expects Brent crude oil to average $71 for the fourth quarter of 2021 and $66 in 2022.
EIA forecasts small-scale solar capacity—primarily from residential rooftop solar panels—to increase by more than 11.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2021 and 2022. Small-scale solar capacity increased by 4.5 GW in 2020.
EIA estimates that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased by 11% in 2020 because of less energy consumption related to reduced economic activity and responses to COVID-19. For 2021, it forecasts energy-related CO2 emissions will increase about 8% from the 2020 level as economic activity increases and leads to rising energy use. EIA expects energy-related CO2 emissions to rise in 2022 but at a slower rate of 2%.