据世界石油10月24日消息，廉价石油供应的时代会一去不复返吗?这是华尔街一些最大的大宗商品部门得出的结论，银行一直在上调它们的长期价格预期，通常会上调10美元或更多。
虽然美国页岩气的繁荣带来了“长期低油价”的口号，但市场现在关注的是气候变化和投资化石燃料的兴趣日益减弱。石油公司不但没有增加供应，反而面临着限制支出的压力，这导致了对新生产的结构性投资不足。有人认为，这将使油价在更长时间内继续走高。
高盛集团大宗商品研究主管Jeff Currie 称：“我给客户的建议是，若你想知道均衡价格在哪里，就必须保持长期持有的状态，我们知道它高于这些水平，因为我们的资本支出和投资没有大幅增加。”
更高的原油价格
供应缺口的概念并不新鲜。自2014年油价暴跌以来，分析师们一直在谈论，由于投资不足，需求有可能超过产量。但新冠疫情导致的能源价格暴跌，再加上紧迫的环境担忧，让人有理由认为这一次有所不同。
全球石油和天然气钻机的数量可能已经从去年油价下跌时的低点回升，但与2020年初相比仍下降了30%以上。据贝克休斯公司称，尽管总体原油价格接近7年高点，但目前的数据与2016年差不多。
未来的看法
在预计高油价会持续更长时间的银行中，高盛表示2023年的价格为85美元。摩根士丹利本周将其长期预测上调10美元至70美元，而法国巴黎银行预计2023年原油价格将接近80美元。包括加拿大皇家银行在内的其它银行纷纷表示，石油正处于结构性牛市的开端。
这些估计表明，这一对全球经济至关重要的大宗商品在结构上变得更加昂贵。油价预期还支撑了荷兰皇家壳牌和bp等大型国际石油公司数千亿美元的股票估值。
投资者的借贷欲望也在不断减弱。仅在上周，法国最大的几家银行就表示，从明年年初开始，它们将限制对页岩油气行业的融资。由于金融机构避开从亚马逊河收获的原油，厄瓜多尔最近不得不将可以为其提供信用担保的银行数量增加一倍。
不可持续性
并非所有人都支持价格可以保持在高位的观点。花旗集团本月在一份报告中说，长期来看，油价低于30美元或高于60美元似乎是不可持续的。包括Ed Morse在内的分析师在一份报告中写道，如果油价长期维持在50美元以上，每天可能会增加700万桶的额外供应。
他们表示:“中期来看，成本指标一直指向每桶40- 55美元的合理价格区间。”
但也有人认为趋势正在转变，尤其是考虑到美国的变化，美国近年来实际上已成为一个摇摆不定的生产国。
一方面，公开上市的美国页岩油公司在产量增长方面仍然受到限制。当EOG Resources Inc.今年2月表示计划增产时，其股价跌幅居标准普尔500指数成份股公司之最。此后生产商几乎没有发表过类似的评论。
与此同时，油田产量下降的影响也越来越明显。去年11月，二叠纪盆地是美国唯一一个产量同比大幅增长的陆上油田。根据能源情报署的一份报告，其他油田数据要么持平，要么下跌。
同样的，尽管一些欧佩克+主要产油国发现自己有闲置产能可以在明年动用，但包括尼日利亚和安哥拉在内的部分产油国已经显示出难以进一步提高产量的迹象。
法国巴黎银行大宗商品部门策略主管戴维•马丁表示:“人们已经非常接受页岩将存在并且我们不会受到资源限制的想法。这在我心里是个问号。”
在一个在化石燃料上花费更少的世界里，问题就转向了需求，需求看起来不会很快见顶。
国际能源署本月早些时候表示，如果目前的需求继续增长，在化石燃料上的支出将低于需求。根据目前的政策，石油需求只有在本世纪30年代才会开始下降。不过，摩根士丹利估计，到2025年，供应可能会停止扩张，留下一个相当大的缺口。该银行石油策略师马丁•拉茨表示：“我们的资本支出正处于净零水平，与此同时，需求并未走上净零轨道。在本世纪20年代的剩余时间里，需求将超过每天1亿桶，但在供应方面，以目前的投资水平，生产商不会持续生产。”
裘寅 编译自 世界石油
原文如下：
Wall Street projects a “higher for longer” era for oil prices
Could the era of cheap oil supply be gone for good? That’s the conclusion of some of the biggest commodities desks align="justify"> While the U.S. shale boom brought about a “lower-for-longer” mantra, the market is now fixated align="justify"> “My advice to clients is that you want to stay long oil until you know where that equilibrium price is” that brings new supplies align="justify"> Higher Crude
The notion of a supply gap is nothing new. Since prices crashed in 2014, analysts have talked up the potential for demand to outstrip production as a result of underinvestment. But the rout in energy prices from Covid-19, combined with pressing environmental concerns, offer reason to think this time is different.
The number of oil and gas drilling rigs globally may have recovered from the lows of when oil prices turned negative last year, but they are still down more than 30% align="justify"> Current figures are about as low as they were in 2016, according to Baker Hughes Co., despite headline crude prices being near a seven-year high.
Future View
Among the banks seeing higher prices for longer, Goldman says $85 for 2023. Morgan Stanley bumped what it calls its long-term forecast up by $10 to $70 this week, while BNP Paribas sees crude at almost $80 in 2023. Other banks including RBC Capital Markets have talked up the prospect of oil being at the start of a structural bull run.
Such estimates imply that a commodity vital to the global economy has become structurally more expensive. Oil price expectations underpin hundreds of billions of dollars of equity valuations for major international oil companies like Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc.
There’s an ever-dwindling appetite to lend align="justify"> Unsustainable
Not everyone supports the idea that prices can be stay at elevated levels. Citigroup Inc. said in a report this month that crude below $30 and above $60 looks unsustainable in the long-term.
A prolonged price above $50 could add 7 million barrels a day of extra supply, the bank’s analysts including Ed Morse wrote in a note.
“Mid-term, cost indicators keep pointing to a fair-value range between $40-$55 a barrel,” they said.
But others see a tide that’s turning, especially given changes in the U.S., which has effectively become a swing producer in recent years.
On align="justify"> When EOG Resources Inc. said in February that it planned to grow output its shares fell the most of any company align="justify"> Alongside that, the impact of field declines is growing clearer. In November, the Permian Basin was the align="justify"> Similarly, while some of the key OPEC+ producers find themselves with spare capacity that they can dip into next year, others including Nigeria and Angola are already showing signs of struggling to lift production further.
“People have become very comfortable with the idea that shale will be there and we’re not resource constrained,” said David Martin, head of commodities desk strategy at BNP Paribas. “That’s a question mark in my mind.”
And in a world spending less money align="justify"> The International Energy Agency said earlier this month that spending align="justify"> “We are running at net-zero type capex levels, whilst at the same time demand is not following the net-zero trajectory,” said Martijn Rats, an oil strategist at the bank. “Demand will be above 100 million barrels a day for the rest of the 2020s, but on the supply side we’re not going to produce that with current investment levels.”