据Oilnow意见专栏10月19日消息（由伍德麦肯锡石油研究副总裁发表），当前，油气行业面临着前所未有的不确定性，油气上游行业面临着挑战，但各行业所面临的困境并非如出一辙。总体而言，深水的增长速度远远快于上游，到2030年，产量将从2021年的1000万桶/天(占全球供应量的6%)增加到1700万桶/天(10%)。我们预计，在未来五年内，被批准开发的油气储量中，近一半将位于深水区。探索无疑会增加更多。
世界上剩余的80%深水石油资源将来自五个国家
油气行业的优异表现源于其储层基本面。深水不是处理边缘岩石性质或复杂流体的地方。除了少数例外，油气行业只选择开发最好的储层。这使得每口井能够获得较高的流量和较高的最终采收率(EUR)。
那么，深水油气公司在上游的表现有多出色呢?最有利的油气盆地在哪里?哪些因素会影响该行业未来的成本效益?
不断增长的深水优势
与非深水相比，深水的优势非常明显，每口井的产量都比浅水或陆上的开发井高得多。深水油井的平均产量为1200万桶油当量，气井为4300万桶油当量。相比之下，全球行业平均每口井不到100万桶油当量。
2021年，圭亚那上游产业现金流充裕，仍处于优势地位
这一优势将变得更强。未来的深水油田将享受两倍于已投产油田的平均收益。这并不是过度乐观的项目计划的征兆。相反，这在很大程度上反映了该行业最近的勘探成功，导致了圭亚那和巴西桑托斯等新盆地的储层开放，这些地区是该行业EUR表现最好的地区。技术进步和投资组合升级也是促成因素。
数十亿美元的深水投资只能在有利的条件下才能推进
更高的采收率意味着需要更少的井。这一点非常重要，因为深水井和相关的水下设备非常昂贵，通常占项目资本支出的一半以上。油井数量少的油田，成本更低、周期更快、盈亏平衡更好。
这种经济优势也与碳优势相关。目前，大多数旗舰级、高采收率深水开发项目都对企业的排放强度目标做出了巨大贡献。
裘寅 编译自 oilnow
原文如下：
Future deepwater fields will deliver twice the average volume of oil
These are challenging times for upstream oil and gas, as the industry navigates unprecedented uncertainty. But the pain is not distributed equally. Growth from deepwater is much faster than from upstream overall, with production set to rise from 10 mmboe per day in 2021 (6% of global supply) to over 17 mmboe per day by 2030 (10%). We expect almost half of the oil and gas reserves being sanctioned for development over the next five years to be in deepwater.
Exploration will doubtless add more.
80% of remaining deepwater oil resources in the world will come from just five countries – WoodMac
The sector’s outperformance stems from its reservoir fundamentals. Deepwater is no place to tackle marginal rock properties or difficult fluids. With few exceptions, the industry has chosen to develop align="justify"> So, how significant is deepwater’s upstream outperformance? Where are the most advantaged oil and gas basins? And what could impact the sector’s cost-effectiveness in the future?
A growing deepwater advantage
Deepwater’s advantage over non-deepwater is spectacular, with each well producing substantially more reserves than development wells in shallow water or align="justify"> Cash flow bonanza for upstream industry in 2021, Guyana remains advantaged
This advantage is about to get even better. Future deepwater oil fields will enjoy twice the average EUR of fields already align="justify"> Multi-billion-dollar deepwater investments align="justify"> Higher EUR means fewer wells are needed. That’s critically important because deepwater wells and associated subsea equipment are expensive and typically amount to more than half of project capital expenditure. Fields with fewer wells enjoy lower costs, faster cycle times and better breakeven prices.
This economic advantage also correlates with carbon advantage. Most flagship, high-EUR deepwater developments now contribute strongly to corporate emissions intensity targets.