中国石化新闻网讯 据今日石油网2022年12月19日报道，根据其发布的最新石油市场报告，石油输出国组织(欧佩克/OPEC)预测，2023年世界石油需求同比将日增至少220万桶。
欧佩克表示，经济合作与发展组织(OECD)明年的石油需求预计将日增30万桶；明年石油需求增长主要是在经合组织的美洲地区，而其他经合组织地区预计不会出现明显的增长。在非经合组织国家，明年石油需求预计将日增190万桶。预计亚洲国家和印度明年石油需求的增长幅度最大。
欧佩克指出，这一预测的前提是疫情得到成功遏制，经济恢复到疫情大流行前的水平。印度的石油需求预计将受到持续健康的经济增长的支持。
另一方面，预计2023年非欧佩克石油供应增长将同比日增150万桶。欧佩克表示，美国致密油产量以及拉丁美洲和北海的海上初创企业预计将推动全球石油供应增长。预计美国明年将以75%的增长份额领跑全球。挪威紧随其后，然后是巴西、加拿大、哈萨克斯坦和圭亚那。
与此同时，预计2023年非欧佩克上游部门投资将同比增长8%，从2022年的4240亿美元增长到4590亿美元。
展望未来，欧佩克认为2023年预计仍将被许多不确定性所包围，如动荡的价格市场和持续的地缘政治冲突。报告说，这要求保持警惕和谨慎。
李峻 编译自 今日石油网
原文如下：
OPEC sees world oil demand up by 2.2M barrels per day in 2023
OPEC – the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries – forecasts a hike in the world oil demand in 2023 by at least 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year, according to its latest Oil Market Report.
OPEC said that Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demand is forecast to increase by 0.3 million bpd; this is mostly in OECD Americas, while other OECD regions are not expected to see noticeable growth. In non-OECD, oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.9 million bpd. Asian countries and India are expected to see the largest growth.
OPEC noted that its forecast assumes the successful containment of the COVID-19 pandemic and a resumption of pre-pandemic economy. India’s oil demand is projected to be supported by continued healthy economic growth.
On the flip side, non-OPEC supply growth in 2023 is forecast to expand by 1.5 million bpd year-on-year. OPEC said US tight oil output and offshore start-ups in Latin America and the North Sea are expected to drive growth. The US is expected to lead the way with a 75% share of the total growth. Norway follows, then Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC upstream sector investment is forecast at US$459 billion in 2023, year-on-year – up by 8% from US$424 billion in 2022.
Looking ahead, OPEC outlined that 2023 is expected to remain surrounded by many uncertainties – like a volatile price market and the ongoing the war. This, it said mandates vigilance and caution.