中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博新闻社2023年1月18日报道，全球最大的石油公司沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）相信，随着全球市场重新开放和航空市场复苏，今年全球石油需求将强劲增长。
沙特阿美首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔在接受彭博新闻社记者采访时表示：“就需求回归市场而言，我们非常乐观。”“我们开始看到来自亚洲的好迹象。希望在接下来的几个月里，我们能看到全球经济有更多的起色。”
纳赛尔说，目前航空燃料的需求每天比疫情大流行前的水平低约100万桶，大约是一年前的一半。他在达沃斯世界经济论坛上表示：“但形势正在好转。”
2022年油价大起大落。在地缘政治冲突爆发之后，布伦特原油价格飙升至每桶近130美元，但随着发展中国家、美国和欧洲经济放缓，近几个月来原油价格大幅下跌。目前油价约为每桶86.80美元，自去年12月底以来上涨了1%。
包括高盛集团在内的许多华尔街银行预计，今年下半年油价将升至每桶100美元以上。他们指出，届时全球经济将出现反弹，美国等国的燃料库存较低，而随着西方收紧制裁，产能大国的出口可能会下降。
减少缓冲
纳赛尔重申，石油公司需要加大对石油生产的投资。他说，目前备用产能为每天200万桶，略高于1亿桶的总需求，备用产能可能会下降。
他表示，全球每天需要400万至600万桶的新产量，才能弥补现有油田产量的自然下降。
他表示：“我们正面临这样一种局面，备用产能正在被侵蚀，任何供应中断都将产生巨大影响。”
他说：“我们将面临与天然气类似的局面。”他指的是地缘政治冲突爆发后，天然气价格跃升至每桶250美元。
沙特阿美预计，在本十年余下的时间里，全球石油需求将继续增长，尽管电动汽车越来越受欢迎，投资者将大量资金投入可再生能源领域。
纳赛尔说：“这抵消了部分石油需求。”不过，2030年原油消费量“肯定”会更高。
石化产品推动
纳赛尔说，石油化工产品(从塑料到化肥和服装的各种原料)的使用越来越多，这对沙特阿美来说是积极的。
沙特阿美希望在2030年前将每天400万桶原油转化为石化产品。纳赛尔说，作为这一努力的一部分，沙特阿美正在考虑对亚洲炼油厂和液体制化工产品厂进行更多投资。
他说：“我们正在与(亚洲的)许多实体进行认真的讨论。”
氢燃料谈判
沙特阿美还在氢燃料领域投资了数十亿美元，这种燃料被视为向更清洁能源转型的关键。沙特阿美计划从2030年开始大规模出口蓝氢，蓝氢是通过转换天然气并捕获转换过程中排放的二氧化碳制成的。
纳赛尔说，与日本和韩国潜在进口商的氢燃料谈判正在进行中，不过在签署任何供应合同之前，他们可能需要得到各自政府的财政支持保证。“他们认为他们能在2023年做到这一点，”纳赛尔说，“我们将会看到。”
纳赛尔说，蓝色氢气的最终成本可能相当于每桶原油250美元左右，不过沙特阿美在进行更多研究之前不会知道这个最终成本。
事实证明，与欧洲公司的谈判更加艰难，主要是因为他们希望等待技术进步来降低蓝氢的价格。纳赛尔说：“很难达成承购协议，尤其是在欧洲。”
李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社
原文如下：
Aramco Sees Oil Demand Picking Up
The world’s biggest oil company is confident demand will pick up strongly this year as golobal market reopens its capacity and the aviation market recovers.
“We are very optimistic in terms of demand coming back to the market,” Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin Nasser, said in an interview. “We are starting to see good signs coming out of Asia. Hopefully, in the next couple of months, we’ll see more of a pickup in the economy there.”
Demand for jet fuel is now around 1 million barrels a day below pre-pandemic levels, according to Nasser, roughly half the figure from a year ago. “It’s picking up,” he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Oil prices whipsawed in 2022. Brent crude surged to almost $130 a barrel in the wake of the war, but slumped in recent months as the development countries, US and European economies slowed. It’s trading at about $86.80 a barrel, up 1% since the end of December.
Many Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., expect it to climb above $100 a barrel in the second half of the year. They cite a global economic rebound by that time, low fuel stockpiles in nations such as the US and the potential for Russian exports to drop as the west tightens sanctions.
Dwindling Buffers
Nasser reiterated that companies need to invest more in oil production. Idle capacity stands at 2 million barrels a day, barely above total demand of 100 million barrels, , he said.
The world needs 4 million to 6 million barrels a day of new production just to make up for the natural decline in existing fields, according to the CEO.
“We’re moving into the situation where we’re eroding spare capacity and any supply interruptions will have a huge impact,” he said.
“We will be in a situation similar to natural gas,” he said, referring to how prices for the fuel jumped to the equivalent of $250 a barrel after the war.
The Saudi Arabian state-controlled company sees oil demand continuing to grow for the rest of the decade, even as electric vehicles become more popular and investors pour money into renewable energy.
“It’s offsetting some of the demand” for oil, said the CEO. Still, crude consumption will “definitely” be higher in 2030.
Petrochemical Push
The increasing use of petrochemicals — feedstocks for everything from plastics to fertilizers and clothes — is positive for Aramco, he said.
The company wants to convert 4 million barrels a day of crude into petrochemicals by the end of the decade. It’s looking at more investments in Asian refineries and liquid-to-chemical plants as part of that push, said Nasser.
“We’re in serious discussions with so many entities” in Asia, he said.
Hydrogen Negotiations
Aramco is also investing billions of dollars in hydrogen, a fuel seen as crucial to the transition to cleaner forms of energy. The Saudi firm aims to export blue hydrogen, made by converting natural gas and capturing the carbon dioxide emitted in the process,>Talks with potential importers in Japan and South Korea are progressing, though they’ll probably need to get assurances of financial support from their governments before they sign any supply contracts, Nasser said.
“They think they’ll be able to do it in 2023,” he said. “We’ll see.”
Blue hydrogen may end up costing the equivalent of around $250 a barrel of oil, Nasser said, though Aramco won’t know until it’s done more research.
“It’s not going to be $80 or $100” a barrel, he said. “This is cleaner — it costs more.”
Negotiations with European firms are proving tougher, primarily because they want to wait for technological advances to bring down the price of blue hydrogen.
“It is very difficult to get an off-take agreement, especially in Europe,” Nasser said.