中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带网2月9日报道，伍德麦肯兹（Woodmac）分析了19个主要国家和地区以及主要终端用途行业，以评估实现净零承诺所需的条件。
在埃及举行的COP27气候大会前夕，80多个国家宣布承诺在本世纪中叶实现净零排放。大多数经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家的目标是到2050年实现净零排放，而发展中国家则计划在10年或20年后实现这一目标。
在当前的承诺情景中，与能源相关的排放量到2030年比2019年下降8%，到2050年比2019年下降80%。全球净零排放将在2060年左右实现，届时二氧化碳累计排放量将达到7500亿吨左右。这意味着全球变暖1.7摄氏度的概率为33%，变暖2摄氏度的概率为67%。
然而，在承诺情况下，世界远远达不到《巴黎协定》中最雄心勃勃的目标。1.5摄氏度路径的剩余碳预算约为四千万吨碳容量，很可能在21世纪30年代初被超过。
在更雄心勃勃的加速能源转型方案下，1.5摄氏度的路径仍然是合理的，并且可以通过快速采用氢气和CCUS技术以及效率的提高来实现。
发电领域
与基本情况相比，在承诺情景下，电力需求将增长约40%，到2050年，绿色氢将成为增量增长的最大单一来源。大约90%的新增产能来自风能、太阳能和能源储存。在承诺情景下，风能和太阳能发电量是基本预设的两倍。
由于风能和太阳能的渗透率更高，低碳可调度发电变得至关重要。市场从不减的天然气和煤炭转向投资于氨共烧、氢燃烧和CCS，以提供灵活的发电。
大宗商品
在承诺的情况下，石油需求下降到每天4900万桶。电气化和新兴技术的应用推动了所有部门的能源替代，特别是在经合组织国家。
生物能源迅速扩张，使海事部门能够实现其脱碳目标。虽然在承诺的情况下，石油仍占燃料的最高份额，但到2050年，生物能源的份额将达到30%。经合组织天然气需求在2025年左右达到峰值，比基本假设提前了近10年，而非经合组织天然气需求仍保持弹性。
在承诺情景下，全球煤炭需求比伍德麦肯兹的基本预设情景低30%。电力行业的煤炭产量下降幅度最大，而电力和工业的CCUS支撑着煤炭需求。
交通运输
在承诺的情况下，新车销售以电动为主，并在乘用车和商用领域迅速增长。实现道路交通的电气化需要大量建设电动汽车充电基础设施。到2050年，充电插座将超过7.5亿台。
在上述承诺的情况下，电池需求将增长7倍，尽管电池化学成分有所改善，但仍将推动原材料的大幅增长。
新兴技术
为了应对难以减排的行业，并提供灵活的发电方式，氢需求的增长速度比伍德麦肯兹的基本预测要快。在承诺的情况下，美国和印度等负责60%的低碳氢需求。
在承诺和净零情景下，氢气产量分别达到每年5亿至6.3亿吨。低成本的可再生能源和电力基础设施是绿色氢的基础，而CCUS和低天然气价格则是蓝色氢的基础。
在承诺情景下，低碳氢管道的增长和项目执行将加速。较大的项目带来规模经济，支持市场发展。
有吸引力的氢气销售价格和激励措施克服了高昂的项目成本。在美国，《通货膨胀削减法案》(Inflation Reduction Act)帮助项目向前推进，其他国家可能会遵循类似的政策框架。
国际贸易使氢的应用成为可能。在承诺情况下，全球贸易量比伍德麦肯兹的基本预设高出约3000万吨。碳去除达到600万吨，几乎是《能源转型展望》中提到数据的三倍。
寿琳玲 编译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Woodmac Analyses Net Zero Pledges Of Major Countries
Wood Mackenzie has analyzed 19 major countries and regions and key end-use sectors to assess what it takes to fulfill net zero pledges.
In the run-up to the COP27 climate conference in Egypt, more than 80 countries announced pledges to reach net zero emissions around mid-century. Most Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations aim to reach net zero by 2050 while developing countries plan to get there a decade or two later.
Energy-related emissions in our pledges case scenario decline by 8% from 2019 levels by 2030 and 80% by 2050. Global net zero arrives around 2060, taking cumulative emissions to around 750 billion tons of CO2. This means the world stays>However, the world falls well short of the most ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement under our pledges case scenario. The remaining carbon budget for a 1.5 Celsius pathway is around 400 Bt CO2 and is likely to be exceeded by the early 2030s.
Under Woodmac’s more ambitious Accelerated Energy Transition (AET-1.5) scenario, a pathway to 1.5 Celsius is still plausible and can be achieved with the rapid adoption of hydrogen and CCUS technologies and efficiency gains.
Power generation
Compared with Woodmac’s base case, power demand expands by about 40% under the pledges scenario, with green hydrogen the single largest source of incremental growth by 2050. Around 90% of incremental capacity comes from wind, solar, and energy storage. Wind and solar generation are double that of our base case under our pledges scenario.
Low-carbon dispatchable generation becomes critical due to higher wind and solar penetration. Markets shift from unabated gas and coal to investing in ammonia co-firing, hydrogen combustion, and CCS to provide flexible generation.
Commodities
Oil demand declines to 49 million barrels per day (mbpd) under the pledges scenario. Electrification and the deployment of emerging technologies drive substitution across all sectors, especially in the OECD countries.
Bioenergy expands rapidly so the maritime sector can reach its decarbonization goals. While oil still accounts for the highest share of bunkering under the pledges scenario, bioenergy reaches a 30% share by 2050. OECD gas demand peaks around 2025, almost a decade earlier than our base case, while non-OECD gas demand remains resilient.
Under the pledges scenario, global coal demand is 30% lower than in Woodmac’s base case. Unabated coal generation in the power sector sees the largest decline, while CCUS in power and industry supports coal demand.
Transport
Under the pledges scenario, new vehicle sales are electric and increase rapidly across both the passenger and commercial sectors. Delivering the electrification of road transport requires a substantial build-out of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Charging outlets reach over 750 million units by 2050.
Battery demand grows sevenfold under the pledges scenario, driving significant growth in raw materials, despite improvements in battery chemistry.
Emerging technologies
Hydrogen demand scales up faster than Wood Mackenzie’s base case to tackle hard-to-abate sectors and to provide flexible power generation. The US, and India are responsible for 60% of low-carbon hydrogen demand under the pledges scenario.
Hydrogen production reaches 500 to 630 million tons per annum under the pledges and net-zero scenarios, respectively. Low-cost renewables and power infrastructure underpin green hydrogen, while CCUS and low natural gas prices support blue hydrogen.
Pipeline growth in low-carbon hydrogen and project execution accelerate under our pledges scenario. Larger projects deliver economies of scale, supporting market development.
An attractive hydrogen sales price and incentives overcome high project costs. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act helps projects to move forward and other countries may follow a similar policy framework.
International trade enables hydrogen adoption. Under the pledges scenario, global trade is around 30 million tons higher than in Woodmac’s base case. Carbon removals reach 6 Bt, almost three times higher than in the analyst company’s Energy Transition Outlook.