据今日油价网站11月30日消息 高盛预计,在有效疫苗发布以及欧佩克+供应有限的情况下,布伦特原油明年将达到每桶65美元。
不过,该投行也提醒称,在此之前,由于欧洲国家的一系列封锁,全球需求将下降300万桶/日。
高盛还表示,欧佩克+仍是油价的一个主要因素,如果不能同意延长目前的减产,这可能使石油行业的油价每桶下跌5美元。
欧佩克+今天开始为期两天的会议,讨论其生产控制措施。尽管延长目前的减产水平(770万桶/日)是最有可能的结果,但也正面临着美国页岩气生产商日益增长的压力,这些国家已经开始提高产量。钻井平台数量最近几周一直在上升,贝克休斯公司上周报告称,钻机数量增加了10部。
分析师对价格的预测各不相同,但似乎都将在明年的当前水平上有所上升。据CNBC报道,BCS全球市场公司预计,到2021年底,布伦特原油价格将升至50美元左右。资本公司更看好布伦特原油,预计明年布伦特原油价格为每桶60美元。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下:
Goldman Sachs Sees Oil Hit $65 In 2021
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to reach $65 a barrel next year following the release of an effective Covid-19 vaccine and a limited increase in supply from OPEC+.
However, before this, global demand will drop by 3 million bpd because of the string of national lockdowns in Europe, the investment bank also warned.
OPEC+ is still a major factor for prices, Goldman also said, and if it fails to agree to an extension of the current production cuts, this could cost the oil industry a $5 price drop per barrel.
OPEC+ begins a two-day meeting today to discuss its production control measures. While an extension of the current level of cuts—7.7 million bpd—is the most likely outcome, the cartel is facing growing pressure from U.S. shale producers who have already begun raising production. The rig count has been rising for weeks, with Baker Hughes reporting last week drillers added 10 rigs.
Analyst forecasts for prices vary but appear to all be for an increase from current levels next year. According to CNBC, BCS Global Markets, for example, expects Brent to rise to the mid-50s by the end of 2021. Capital Economics is even more bullish, expecting Brent crude at $60 a barrel next year.