据安迅思6月15日消息称，在6月15日举行的欧洲氢骨干(EHB)活动上，市场参与者表示，到2050年，欧洲和英国的绿色和蓝色氢供应可能超过预期需求。
咨询公司Guidehouse的Dean Peters在他的报告中称，到2050年，欧盟和英国的氢需求预计将平均为2150 -2750太瓦时，相当于欧盟和英国最终能源消耗的20-25%。
与此同时，据Guidehouse的Kees van der Leun称，欧盟和英国的绿色氢供应潜力将逐步上升，到2030年达到450太瓦时，2040年达到2100太瓦时，2050年达到4000太瓦时。
小组成员认为，要达到绿色氢供应的潜力，就必须迅速扩大风能和太阳能发电的容量，超过直接发电所需的容量。
为了满足绿色氢的预计需求，可再生能源到2050年必须生产2900 - 3800太瓦时。
欧洲也可以生产大量的蓝色氢。
到2040年，该网络将覆盖爱尔兰到匈牙利，或从西班牙到北欧国家。从2040年开始，EHB注意到大规模可再生能源产能的潜在成熟度。例如，到2050年，北海海上风电装机容量有望达到180吉瓦。
如果该管道重新调整用途，供应将通过丹麦和波兰之间的波罗的海天然气管道进行，该管道的长期天然气合同将于2037年到期。
绿色氢在欧盟/英国的成本潜力也很大。到2050年，所有4000太瓦时的绿色氢能源的成本预计将低于2欧元/公斤。
市场参与者还表示，蓝氢可以加快减排速度，并可以迅速扩大规模。
van der Leun补充说:“到目前为止，宣布的蓝氢项目到2030年将达到230太瓦时，到2035年达到380太瓦时，其中70%的产量来自英国和荷兰。”
朱佳妮 摘译自 安迅思
原文如下：
EU/UK hydrogen supply to surpass demand by 2050
European and UK green and blue hydrogen supply could exceed projected demand by 2050, said market participants at European Hydrogen Backbone (EHB) event align="justify"> The EU and UK hydrogen demand is expected to be align="justify"> At the same time EU and UK green hydrogen supply potential is set for a gradual rise to 450TWh in 2030, 2,100TWh in 2040 and 4,000TWh in 2050, according to Kees van der Leun at Guidehouse.
Panellists argued that rapid expansion of wind and solar capacity, beyond what is needed for direct electricity, is required to reach the green hydrogen supply potential.
For the projected demand to be covered by green hydrogen align="justify"> Europe can also produce large quantities of blue hydrogen.
By 2040 a network could span Ireland to Hungary or from Spain to the Nordic countries. It is from 2040 that the EHB notes the potential maturity of large-scale renewable capacity. For example, the North Sea has potential for 180GW of offshore wind power capacity to be installed by 2050.
Supply could flow via the Baltic gas pipeline between Denmark and Poland if the line were repurposed, with long-term natural gas contracts align="justify"> Cost potential for green hydrogen in the EU/UK is also huge. All 4,000TWh green hydrogen potential in 2050 is expected to cost less than €2/kg.
Market participants also said blue hydrogen can speed up emission reductions and can be scaled up quickly.
“[Blue hydrogen] projects announced to date add up to 230TWh by 2030 and 380TWh by 2035 with 70% of these volumes coming from UK and the Netherlands,” added van der Leun.