中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站 2022年11月16日报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司在发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中披露了其到2026年的最新油价预测。
根据该报告，惠誉解决方案目前预计今年布伦特原油价格平均为每桶102美元，2023年为每桶95美元，2024年和2025年均为每桶88美元，2026年为每桶85美元。在10月份发给美国钻井网站的一份报告中，惠誉解决方案曾预计今年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶105美元，2023年为每桶100美元，2024年和2025年均为每桶88美元，2026年为每桶85美元。
惠誉解决方案与彭博共识（彭博共识也参考了惠誉解决方案上述两份报告）目前预计，今年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶101美元，2023年为每桶98美元，2024年为每桶88美元，2025年为每桶82美元，2026年为每桶80.1美元。今年10月份，彭博共识曾预测，今年布伦特原油均价为每桶101.7美元，2023年为每桶94.6美元，2024年为每桶87.5美元，2025年为每桶82美元，2026年为每桶80.1美元。
惠誉解决方案在其最新的油价展望报告中表示：“油价下调反映了近几个月油价走软、市场人气偏空以及宏观经济环境不断恶化。”
惠誉解决方案补充称：“尽管如此，欧佩克+的大幅减产行动正在帮助维持油价底部，我们认为，在全球能源市场紧张、需求季节性增强以及出口进一步下降的情况下，油价在今年冬季有短期上涨空间。”
在最近一次会议上，欧佩克+决定从今年11月份开始，将其原油日总产量目标从今年8月的要求水平下调200万桶。 欧佩克+的下一次会议定于12月4日举行。
在11月早些时候发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)报告中，美国能源信息署(EIA)将今年和明年的布伦特原油价格预测分别小幅上调至每桶102.13美元和每桶95.33美元。在10月份发布的上一份STEO报告中，EIA曾预计今年布伦特原油现货平均价格将达到每桶102.09美元，在2023年将达到每桶94.58美元。
今年2月，由于地缘政治冲突升级，石油价格多年来首次突破每桶100美元。截至目前，今年布伦特原油最低收盘价为1月3日的每桶78.98美元，而迄今为止，今年布伦特原油最高收盘价为3月8日的每桶127.98美元。在撰写本文时，布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶94.14美元。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Reveals Latest Oil Price Forecasts
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has revealed its latest oil price forecasts through to 2026 in a new report sent to Rigzone.
The company now sees the Brent crude price averaging $102 per barrel this year, $95 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026, according to the report. In a report sent to Rigzone last month, Fitch Solutions projected that Brent would average $105 per barrel this year, $100 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to and which was also included in both Fitch Solutions reports, currently sees Brent averaging $101 per barrel in 2022, $98 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, and $80.1 per barrel in 2026. In October, the Bloomberg Consensus projected that Brent would average $101.7 per barrel in 2022, $94.6 per barrel in 2023, $87.5 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, and $80.1 per barrel in 2026.
“The downward revision reflects the softening in prices seen over recent months, a bearish skew in market sentiment and a deteriorating macroeconomic environment,” Fitch Solutions stated in its latest oil price outlook report.
“That said, OPEC+ action is helping to keep a floor under prices and we see scope for a short-term rally over winter, amid tight global energy markets, a seasonal strengthening in demand and further declines in exports,” Fitch Solutions added.
At its latest meeting, OPEC+ decided to adjust its overall production down by two million barrels per day from its August 2022 required production levels, starting in November 2022. OPEC+ is next scheduled to meet>In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly raised its Brent oil price forecast for both 2022 and 2023 to $102.13 per barrel and $95.33 per barrel, respectively. In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that the Brent spot average would come in at $102.09 per barrel in 2022 and $94.58 per barrel in 2023.
Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years in February as the war. Brent’s lowest 2022 close, so far, was seen on January 3 at $78.98 per barrel, while its highest 2022 close, so far, was seen on March 8 at $127.98 per barrel. At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $94.14 per barrel.