中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年2月3日报道，惠誉解决方案2月3日重申了其对今年布伦特原油价格的预测，为每桶95美元。
The Edge援引该评级机构的话报道说：“在需求方面，增长前景有所改善。”
惠誉解决方案补充说：“在供应方面，供应的不确定性继续给前景蒙上阴影，但美国产量增长放缓以及欧佩克+的持续减产，将共同显著降低今年的供应增长。”
其他乐观预测人士也引用了同样的一系列因素，其中一些人预计布伦特原油价格今年将再次突破每桶100美元。例如，高盛投资银行认为，在需求强劲增长的支撑下，布伦特原油价格将在2023年底触及每桶105美元，这将使石油市场在今年下半年陷入供应不足的局面。
摩根士丹利还认为，今年下半年石油市场将趋于紧缩，这可能会推动布伦特原油价格在年底前升至每桶110美元。
许多分析人士去年曾预计，西方的制裁将对油价产生巨大影响，并大幅推高油价。然而，重新定向出口而非减产确保了制裁对全球石油供应和价格的影响相对温和。
惠誉解决方案对今年油价前景持乐观态度的另一个因素是，人们对全球经济的看法发生了变化，目前预计全球经济放缓的程度将低于预期。
这家评级机构表示：“尽管货币和财政政策收紧等不利因素持续存在，但近期公布的数据表明，几个大型经济体的表现好于预期。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Fitch Expects $95 Oil In 2023
Fitch Solutions has reiterated its oil price forecast for this year at $95 per barrel of Brent crude.
“On the demand side, prospects for growth have improved, ” the ratings agency said, as quoted by The Edge.
“On the supply side, uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook, but slowing production growth in the US, continued production restraint by OPEC+ will combine to significantly decrease supply growth this year,” Fitch Solutions added.
That same set of factors has been cited by other bullish forecasters, too with some of them expecting Brent to top $100 per barrel again this year. Goldman Sachs, for instance, sees Brent hitting $105 per barrel in late 2023>Morgan Stanley also sees a tighter oil market in the second half of the year, which could push Brent crude to $110 per barrel by the end of the year.
Many analysts last year expected Western sanctions to affect that dramatically and push oil prices much higher. However, the redirection of exports rather than a production cut ensured a relatively modest impact of the sanctions>One other factor that played a part in Fitch’s bullish outlook for oil prices this year was the changed sentiment about the global economy, with expectations now for a milder-than-forecast slowdown.
“Despite ongoing headwinds in the form of monetary and fiscal policy tightening, recent data releases suggest that several large economies are holding up better than expected,” the ratings agency said.